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2008 NFL Rookie Values Redux

Ok, I did this right after the NFL draft in April but following OTA's & mini-camps, and the stupidity of veterans (such as Cedric Benson) a lot has changed since then.  So I wanted to take another pass at this.             

RB Share Situations - New Blood from the 2008 NFL Draft

The NFL draft always brings some surprises but one guarantee you can always count on is new blood, an infusion of 250+ players who are young, healthy and hungry to make it in the NFL.  In a professional sport that carries a career expectancy of approximately 3.2 years for a drafted player, many joke that NFL stands for 'Not For Long'.  For fantasy leaguers, particularly dynasty league participants (where you keep players for longer than a single year), the NFL draft represents new blood, players who shift current player's values and new opportunities for fantasy success.  One trend that people will start talking about a lot more, and expect to see this all over the 2008 fantasy football guides that get published in June, is the NFL shift to Two Back systems where one running back maybe gets a majority of the carries between the 20's and then another one comes in for the goal line work, short yardage or third down opportunities.  The NY Giants won the super bowl with this strategy, and New England has employed it during their reign the past eight years to great success. So while having competent backups has always been the goal, the NFL is moving towards a trend of literally have two guys who could be considered the starter.  For fantasy this means fewer true 'featured backs' and more ambiguity as to who is the 'right' guy to start week to week.

Looking to make deals

I know I always believe I have an obscene amount of talent but sense I scout and spend more time on this than most people, in the PAFFL and in general, I typically end up having success both with players I keep and deal.  This year I've been very quiet (I suspect just about all of you know since I've gone from sending emails about deal ideas weekly, sometimes daily, to eerily silent) due to workload on both my primary job and side passions like FFCollective, TheWino.net and this site. 

Braylon Edwards for Jerry Porter, Garrett Wolfe & an '08 Rookie Pick

The Salem Beavercats and the I.M.T. announce a three player trade. 

I.M.T. receives WR Jerry Porter ($11, 2009), RB Garrett Wolfe ($10, 2009) and SB's 2008 rookie pick, Salem Beavercats acquire WR Braylon Edwards ($26, 2007) and a 2008 DS spot. 

Is Daunte Culpepper back as a dominant fantasy QB?

Oakland Raiders QB Daunte Culpepper, starting in place of injured Josh McCown, against his former team the Miami Dolphins, turned in one of the season's top individual performances with 3 rushing TD's and 2 TD tosses (both to Jerry Porter) in a rout of the home team Dolphins.   What's remarkable about the performance is he only threw the ball 12 times (with 5 completions for 75 yards) and only had 28 yards rushing for a total of 103 yards.  Yet 5 TD's are rewarded nicely in fantasy leagues and it was a huge victory for the Raiders, making them 2-2 and giving them their first road victory in 2 years.      

JaMarcus Russell for Roy Williams? Only in Fantasy Football

The Los Frijoles Pintos and Fightin' Irie consummated a trade this week. 

The Irie acquired QB JaMarcus Russell & K Phil Dawson while also agreeing to swap their lower pick next year with LFP for WR Roy Williams & K Neil Rackers and the higher rookie pick in 2008. 

7 Shaky QB Situations

The SportingNews wrote an overview of seven quarterback situations that entering camp appear to be shaky or unsettled.  The teams range from playoff contenders like Jacksonville to teams simply looking for respectability such as Cleveland and Oakland. 

NFL Teams with Depth to Deal

NFL.com's Pat Kirwan considers some teams with depth that might be interested in dealing players prior to or during training camp.  There are some interesting kernel's in there but as usual football trades close to the season (or during) are far and few between because of the complexity in learning the respective new system in a short period of time. 

NFL QB Team by Team Analysis

NFL.com's Michael Fabiano analyzed all 32 NFL team's Quarterback position for fantasy production.  He didn't go into as much detail as some may like but for the majority (AKA no keeper leagues) of fantasy leaguers it'll be a good overview by team. 

Dominic Rhodes suspended for 4 games

The Mercury News reported that recently acquired running back Dominic Rhodes has been suspended by the NFL for violating its substance-abuse policy and won't be available for the first four regular-season games. Rhodes, 28, signed a two-year, $7.5 million contract with the Raiders on March 9, less than two months after playing a pivotal role in the Indianapolis Colts' Super Bowl victory over the Chicago Bears.

NFL.com's AFC West Team's Fantasy Overview...

NFL.com's Michael Fabiano is publishing overviews of each division by team of their fantasy value including schedule strength (against run & pass) and listing of each team's top 5 fantasy performers.  I've listed the top 5 for each team below and the overall summaries are good.  Some of this is academic but for fantasy nuts, its worth diving into the details.  This is for the AFC West. 

TE Zach Miller, #38 Overall Pick, Oakland Raiders

Oakland Raiders selected Arizona State TE Zach Miller with the #38 overall selection (#6 in the 2nd round) in the 2007 NFL draft.  Miller is a big, athletic pass catching tight end who will immediately upgrade the Raiders tight end position and provide a security blanket for short & intermediate routes in the middle of the field.   

Oakland Raiders selected Arizona State TE Zach Miller with the #38 overall selection (#6 in the 2nd round) in the 2007 NFL draft.  Miller is a big, athletic pass catching tight end who will immediately upgrade the Raiders tight end position and provide a security blanket for short & intermediate routes in the middle of the field.   

Oakland Raiders selected Arizona State TE Zach Miller with the #38 overall selection (#6 in the 2nd round) in the 2007 NFL draft.  Miller is a big, athletic pass catching tight end who will immediately upgrade the Raiders tight end position and provide a security blanket for short & intermediate routes in the middle of the field.   

Oakland Raiders selected Arizona State TE Zach Miller with the #38 overall selection (#6 in the 2nd round) in the 2007 NFL draft.  Miller is a big, athletic pass catching tight end who will immediately upgrade the Raiders tight end position and provide a security blanket for short & intermediate routes in the middle of the field.   

Oakland Raiders selected Arizona State TE Zach Miller with the #38 overall selection (#6 in the 2nd round) in the 2007 NFL draft.  Miller is a big, athletic pass catching tight end who will immediately upgrade the Raiders tight end position and provide a security blanket for short & intermediate routes in the middle of the field.   

WR Johnnie Lee Higgens, #99 Overall Pick, Oakland Raiders

Oakland Raiders selected UTEP WR Johnnie Lee Higgins with the #99 overall selection (#36 in the 3rd round) in the 2007 NFL draft. Lee Higgins is a fast, lean receiver who can make the big play.  Scouts question whether he'll be able to handle the physicality of the NFL and learn to run crisp routes, the Raiders obviously liked his speed and believe he'll contribute to the vertical passing game they hope to institute with new QB JaMarcus Russell.

Oakland Raiders selected UTEP WR Johnnie Lee Higgins with the #99 overall selection (#36 in the 3rd round) in the 2007 NFL draft. Lee Higgins is a fast, lean receiver who can make the big play.  Scouts question whether he'll be able to handle the physicality of the NFL and learn to run crisp routes, the Raiders obviously liked his speed and believe he'll contribute to the vertical passing game they hope to institute with new QB JaMarcus Russell.

Oakland Raiders selected UTEP WR Johnnie Lee Higgins with the #99 overall selection (#36 in the 3rd round) in the 2007 NFL draft. Lee Higgins is a fast, lean receiver who can make the big play.  Scouts question whether he'll be able to handle the physicality of the NFL and learn to run crisp routes, the Raiders obviously liked his speed and believe he'll contribute to the vertical passing game they hope to institute with new QB JaMarcus Russell.

Oakland Raiders selected UTEP WR Johnnie Lee Higgins with the #99 overall selection (#36 in the 3rd round) in the 2007 NFL draft. Lee Higgins is a fast, lean receiver who can make the big play.  Scouts question whether he'll be able to handle the physicality of the NFL and learn to run crisp routes, the Raiders obviously liked his speed and believe he'll contribute to the vertical passing game they hope to institute with new QB JaMarcus Russell.

Oakland Raiders selected UTEP WR Johnnie Lee Higgins with the #99 overall selection (#36 in the 3rd round) in the 2007 NFL draft. Lee Higgins is a fast, lean receiver who can make the big play.  Scouts question whether he'll be able to handle the physicality of the NFL and learn to run crisp routes, the Raiders obviously liked his speed and believe he'll contribute to the vertical passing game they hope to institute with new QB JaMarcus Russell.

Oakland Raiders selected UTEP WR Johnnie Lee Higgins with the #99 overall selection (#36 in the 3rd round) in the 2007 NFL draft. Lee Higgins is a fast, lean receiver who can make the big play.  Scouts question whether he'll be able to handle the physicality of the NFL and learn to run crisp routes, the Raiders obviously liked his speed and believe he'll contribute to the vertical passing game they hope to institute with new QB JaMarcus Russell.

RB Michael Bush, #100 Overall Pick, Oakland Raiders

Oakland Raiders selected Louisville RB Michael Bush with the #100 overall selection (#1 in the 4th round) in the 2007 NFL draft.  Bush has the size & speed to be a dominant RB and was expected to be a 1st round selection before a broken leg and a knee scope forced him to miss the season, all star games and scouting combine.   The Raiders got a steal though with this selection, Bush will start his career as the change of pace, short yardage option behind LaMont Jordan & Dominic Rhodes but it wouldn't surprise anybody if he was the featured back as early as 2008.
 

Oakland Raiders selected Louisville RB Michael Bush with the #100 overall selection (#1 in the 4th round) in the 2007 NFL draft.  Bush has the size & speed to be a dominant RB and was expected to be a 1st round selection before a broken leg and a knee scope forced him to miss the season, all star games and scouting combine.   The Raiders got a steal though with this selection, Bush will start his career as the change of pace, short yardage option behind LaMont Jordan & Dominic Rhodes but it wouldn't surprise anybody if he was the featured back as early as 2008.
 

Oakland Raiders selected Louisville RB Michael Bush with the #100 overall selection (#1 in the 4th round) in the 2007 NFL draft.  Bush has the size & speed to be a dominant RB and was expected to be a 1st round selection before a broken leg and a knee scope forced him to miss the season, all star games and scouting combine.   The Raiders got a steal though with this selection, Bush will start his career as the change of pace, short yardage option behind LaMont Jordan & Dominic Rhodes but it wouldn't surprise anybody if he was the featured back as early as 2008.
 

Randy Moss dealt to New England for a 4th round pick

ESPN.com is reporting the Oakland Raiders dealt WR Randy Moss to New England Patriots today for a 4th round selection.  Moss already has agreed to dramatically restructure his contract, which is scheduled to pay him $9.75 million this coming season.

QB Josh McCown & WR Mike Williams dealt to the Oakland Raiders

ESPN's on air NFL Draft team is reporting the Oakland Raiders have traded for QB Josh McCown and WR Mike Williams formerly of the Detroit Lions for a 4th round selection in this year's draft - the #1 of that round.  This deal makes sense for Detroit since Williams has long been rumored to be on his way out and they selected the draft's #1 WR in Calvin Johnson, plus the Lions took a QB of the future in the 2nd round in Drew Stanton. 

QB JaMarcus Rusell, #1 Overall Pick, Oakland Raiders

The Oakland Raiders used the #1 overall pick in the 2007 draft on LSU QB JaMarcus Russell.  The 6'6" 263 pound junior has a very high ceiling of potential but also possibly a lower floor than Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn.  With a rare cannon for an arm and consistent growth & production in the SEC, he appears to be a developing franchise quarterback. 
 
 

Randy Moss to the Packers?

The Boston Herald reports a source in Wisconsin said today that the Packers and Raiders are on the verge of announcing a trade that would send WR Randy Moss to Green Bay in exchange for backup QB Aaron Rodgers. There are expected to be other particulars in the deal. According to the source, Green Bay would also give up a seventh-round pick in 2008, while the Packers would receive Raiders TE Courtney Anderson as part of the deal. The Packers would also receive a conditional pick from the Raiders in the 2009 draft which would be based on Rodgers’ production in Oakland the next two seasons. The source indicated that Moss has agreed to restructure his contract, which calls for $20 million in base salary the next two years. Moss and Packers QB Brett Favre are said to have been talking on the phone throughout the process. Press conferences could be held as early as Friday.

Justin Griffith signs with Oakland Raiders

ESPN reported the Oakland Raiders reached agreement Friday evening with Atlanta's free-agent FB Justin Griffith on a three-year, $3.8 million contract, completing a whirlwind day of activity in Oakland. The deal is contingent upon Griffith passing his physical.

Dominic Rhodes signs with the Oakland Raiders

NFL.com's Adam Schefter reports free agent RB Dominic Rhodes reached agreement Friday morning on a two-year, $7.5 million contract with the Oakland Raiders.

Randy Moss maybe in Patriots plans?

According to the Boston Herald, the New England Patriots have shown interest in dealing for WR Randy Moss. A source said Bill Belichick believes he could motivate Moss to play and that the veteran leadership on the team would keep the controversial WR in check. 

Raiders WR's Moss & Porter to be Back!

According to reports on the NFL Network, Oakland Raiders new head coach Lane Kiffin is saying that both Jerry Porter & Randy Moss will be back with the team in '07.   If this is true, drop Ronald Curry & Doug Gabriel's value if this is more than hype.

Raiders name Lane Kiffin Head Coach

The Oakland Raiders named 31 year old Lane Kiffin as their next head coach.  Kiffin was recently the offensive and recruiting coordinator for the University of Southern California (USC).  Originally interviewed last week to be the offensive coordinator under Steve Sarkisian, Kiffin was offered the head position when Sarkisian walked away from the offer. 

USC's assistant Sarkisian Declines Raiders Offer to be next HC

According to ESPN and other sources, the University of Southern California quarterbacks coach Steve Sarkisian has declined the Oakland Raiders offer to become their next head coach.  What's remarkable about this, if true, is how far the Raiders have fallen in the hierarchy of the NFL world.  Sarkisian is not even one of the top three assistants in terms of power or pay at USC, yet he turned down a $2MM+ opportunity to be an NFL head coach. 

Raiders dump Art Shell after one season...

After another disappointing season in which they often were embarrassed, the Raiders fired HC Art Shell for the second time in the past thirteen years.  Shell was successful his first stint in Oakland but brought outdated schemes to the team this time around which left the Raiders inferior early in the season leading to the 2-14 year and the #1 overall draft pick.  The Raiders have some talent in place on defense but need a complete overhaul on offense - particularly after setting an NFL post merger record for futility by scoring only 12 offensive touchdowns all season long. 

Brady Quinn a Raider?

The Oakland Raiders secured the #1 overall selection in the April NFL Draft with their 2-14 record, and the early speculation is they'll select Notre Dame senior QB Brady Quinn.  QB is a clear area of need after Andrew Walter and Aaron Brooks failed to show any promise amid one of the worst offensive performances in NFL history.         

LaMont Jordan - Torn MCL ends his season

Arguably fantasy's biggest bust in 2006, the Oakland Raiders, LaMont Jordan, is likely lost for the rest of the season with a torn MCL.  The injury came in the early 2nd quarter on a twelve yard run.  Jordan, a top draft choice in all fantasy leagues was having a terrible season along with all his Raider teammates. 
Justin Fargas will assume the starting role with Rashard Lee & Zack Crockett receiving carries.  None are likely to be quality starters but they're all worth keeping an eye on, particularly Fargas as he could have a good game down the stretch. 

Brooks to Start for Raiders

According to ESPN's John Clayton, the Oakland Raiders will start Aaron Brooks tomorrow against the KC Chiefs.  The Raiders will be without three of their starting offensive lineman and face a revamped defense under new HC Herm Edwards, so don't run out to pick up & play Aaron Brooks. 

Is Randy Moss Finished as an Elite WR?

It's almost amusing now to think who got the better end of the Oakland Raiders Minnesota Vikings deal of all-pro receiver Randy Moss prior to the 2005 season.  At the time of the trade most pundits felt Ad Davis had found himself the next great Raider playmaker.  But twenty-four games into the marriage Moss has compiled 1450 yards & 11 TD's, fair numbers for an average featured receiver but mediocre for a guy making close to $8 million and expected to be a difference maker.  Furthermore Moss is quickly gaining the reputation for being a poor chemistry guy who isn't a winner - and his team's respective records over the past three seasons demonstrate that. 
And now the national media is starting to pontificate that very thing, that Moss is done as a premier receiver, at twenty nine years old.  SI's Phil Taylor wrote about this today

So is Randy Moss done as an elite receiver?

Raiders O-line NFL's worst?

It is difficult to discern anything with certainty but after two regular season games Oakland Raiders look destined for the first overall selection in the 2007 draft.  And their problems are across both the offense and defense but the most glaring issue is with the offensive line which has looked terrible.  Robert Gallery has been a bust on Tony Mandarich proportions, though for some reason the media hasn't jumped on this reality.  Couple that with subpar free agent signings such as Barry Sims and you have the makings of an underachieving line.  The media is slowly catching on to this but after 4 missed center-quarterback exchanges, 15 sacks and approx. 300 total yards  the Raiders are in deep trouble.

Daunte Culpepper is overrated?

I still don't understand why Daunte Culpepper is considered a franchise QB whereas Aaron Brooks is a retread likely on his last opportunity in Oakland? 

Brooks career record is just below .500 playing for a team that is well below .500 for its lifetime, the NO Saints.  His seasonal averages over the past five years are 22.2 TD's, 15 interceptions, 3500 yards passing as well as 250 yards, 2 td's rushing and 4.3 fumbles lost.  One interesting note, the NO Saints have won only one playoff game in their history, started by Brooks in 2000 against the defending super bowl champion St. Louis Rams. 

Culpepper's career record is better but only slightly so playing on a team that had gone to the playoffs seven consecutive seasons before Culpepper arrived.  In Culpepper's six seasons as the Vikings starting QB, they qualified for the playoffs in only three of them.  His seasonal averages over the six years are 22.5 TD's, 14.3 interceptions & 3360 yards passing, along with 412 yards, 4.8 TD's and 6 fumbles lost. 

Jerry Porter out of Oakland?

Based on the sounds coming out of the Oakland Raiders camp it appears WR Jerry Porter's days in Oakland, or at least his day's as a factor in the offense, are near the end.  According to ESPN, there is a huge rift between Oakland Raiders WR Jerry Porter and HC Art Shell.

Aaron Brooks enters camp as Raiders Starter

The Oakland Tribune reports Raiders HC Art Shell confirmed that QB Aaron Brooks will be the starting quarterback going into training camp. "Still, there's nothing etched in stone," Shell said. "We're still going to take a look at what we have. You've got to have somebody start out, so he's the guy who's starting out."

Aaron Brooks Raiders Starting QB?

The Oakland Raiders signed QB Aaron Brooks to a 2 year agreement, as the Raiders Head Coach Art Shell said,

"Aaron gives us great depth at the quarterback position and provides us with a veteran presence."

Brooks is a mobile quarterback with a rocket arm who seemingly has endless potential but has never been able to put it all together. In 85 games, 82 of them starts, Brooks has completed 1,563 of 2,771 passes for 19,156 yards, with 120 touchdown passes and 84 interceptions. He has thrown for over 2,800 yards in a season five times and had four straight 3,000-yard campaigns snapped last season. The former University of Virginia standout, chosen by the Packers in the fourth round in 1999 and then traded to New Orleans in 2000, averaged 15.4 starts per season from 2001-2005.

Brooks will likely start in 2006 for Oakland as they groom Andrew Walter, a 3rd round selection in '05, as a possible future starter in 2007 or 2008. QB Marques Tiusasosopo will compete with Brooks & Walter but the fifth year veteran is seen as a journeyman at this point in his career. What makes this a good move is it pits the Oakland vertical passing offense with Brooks primary strengths as a downfield passer. Brooks was often ill fit for the New Orleans west coast system that called for timing routes and quick throws. In Oakland, Brooks will have a tremendous receiving core w/ Randy Moss, Jerry Porter, Doug Gabriel & Ronald Curry that calls for a downfield attack balanced with a straight ahead running ground.

At the very least this is an upgrade for Oakland and could be the QB they've looked for the past decade. If not they've bridged the gap to Andrew Walter or their next project.