PAFFL.com

LFP goes on a trade binge...

The Los Frijoles Pintos completed two other deals this afternoon.

Reggie Bush for Jonathan Stewart...

BINGO, which is fast becoming the new Team Kitty, dealt their #2 overall rookie pick to Los Frijoles Pintos today in a relatively big deal. 

NFL.com Fantasy Player Rankings

In keeping with linking to other free player rankings, below are links to the NFL.com player rankings which are also published in print form.

Ben Roethlisberger for Laurence Maroney & Tarvaris Jackson...

The Fightin' Irie and IMT have completed a relatively big deal involved multiple rookie picks, toppers, cap space and All-Pro Ben Roethlisberger. 

Braylon Edwards, Willie Parker, Donovan McNabb in a blockbuster...

The first blockbuster deal of 2008 was consummated between BINGO (formerly Blak Jesus) and the Beavercats. 

ESPN Fantasy Football Player Rankings

ESPN has published its fantasy positional rankings, free for the general public, on its sites which also appear in its overpriced but quality fantasy magazine. 

2008 NFL Rookie Values Redux

Ok, I did this right after the NFL draft in April but following OTA's & mini-camps, and the stupidity of veterans (such as Cedric Benson) a lot has changed since then.  So I wanted to take another pass at this.             

What Fantasy Leagues can learn from NFL Rule Changes

The Wall Street Journal published an article today titled, "What Fantasy Leaguers can Learn from the NFL Draft Rule Changes".  They list out five points to take away from them shortening the time between rounds, from adding new elements to the draft and the game itself.  The core point though was that as successful as the NFL is, they're not afraid to continue to improve. The PAFFL and every fantasy league for that matter should take that advice seriously. 

2008 PAFFL Rookie Pick Projections (1st Draft)

       

The 2008 NFL draft brought fantasy football a plethora of fresh talent. Five first round selections at RB, two QB’s and plenty of solid 2nd & 3rd rounders as well.  The one troubling development though is the two-back system becoming pervasive in the the copycat NFL. Possibly not a single RB selected this year will be a true featured back (sans McFadden & Stewart)  McFadden is a likely #2 fantasy back, no team will select a player that high with that type of talent w/o a plan to feature him, and maybe Jonathan Stewart in Carolina where HC John Fox likes a bruising back to wear down defenses.  But the next eight backs off the board (Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, Kevin Jones, Jamaal Charles & Steve Slaton) will be in share situations at best.  In fact the only one in that group with an opportunity to start is Matt Forte in Chicago where all he needs to do is beat out bonafide bust Cedric Benson.

RB Share Situations - New Blood from the 2008 NFL Draft

The NFL draft always brings some surprises but one guarantee you can always count on is new blood, an infusion of 250+ players who are young, healthy and hungry to make it in the NFL.  In a professional sport that carries a career expectancy of approximately 3.2 years for a drafted player, many joke that NFL stands for 'Not For Long'.  For fantasy leaguers, particularly dynasty league participants (where you keep players for longer than a single year), the NFL draft represents new blood, players who shift current player's values and new opportunities for fantasy success.  One trend that people will start talking about a lot more, and expect to see this all over the 2008 fantasy football guides that get published in June, is the NFL shift to Two Back systems where one running back maybe gets a majority of the carries between the 20's and then another one comes in for the goal line work, short yardage or third down opportunities.  The NY Giants won the super bowl with this strategy, and New England has employed it during their reign the past eight years to great success. So while having competent backups has always been the goal, the NFL is moving towards a trend of literally have two guys who could be considered the starter.  For fantasy this means fewer true 'featured backs' and more ambiguity as to who is the 'right' guy to start week to week.

Top 64 NFL Draft Prospects

ESPN reporter Todd McShay debuts an article on the top 64 NFL draft prospects (ESPN Insider Subscription required) in tiers of 6 or so. It's what he calls 'tiering' that every NFL war room (draft team) creates to differentiates players of various levels, so they know they're not 'reaching' for a player based on need over a superior talent in the same general area of a selection.

NFL Free Agency Kicks Off in a Frenzy...

This past Friday the NFL's annual free agency period kicked off with a flurry of activity.  However it wasn't until today that the first big fantasy changing signing occurred with the Atlanta Falcons signing former Chargers RB Michael Turner to a 6 year, $34.5 million contract with reportedly $15 million in guaranteed money. 

Junior RB's make '08 NFL Draft a Fantasy Dream

The college football senior class was unusually thin at the key fantasy football skill positions of running back and wide receiver.  There were several quality senior QB prospects, specifically Boston College's Matt Ryan, Louisville's Brian Brohm and Kentucky's Andre Woodson but there wasn't a guaranteed second round grade on any back and no first round grade on a wide receiver.  However all that changed with the flood of Juniors who declared for the NFL draft, headlined by the likely top 5 selection, Arkansas's Darren McFadden. 

2008 PAFFL Rookie Pick Order

The final rookie pick order for 2008 is below.  If there are any questions, please feel free to drop comments on this.  The 2008 NFL draft promises to be deep at QB (Brian Brohm, Andre Woodson, Matt Ryan & Colt Brennan) but soft at RB & WR until the underclassman declare starting next week.  There is widespread speculation that junior RB's Darren McFadden (who said he would enter the NFL this past summer), Kevin Smith and Steve Slatton would enter the draft.  If at least two of them do, we'll have a solid four to five deep 1st round selections QB's & RB's to choose from come next July.

Looking to make deals

I know I always believe I have an obscene amount of talent but sense I scout and spend more time on this than most people, in the PAFFL and in general, I typically end up having success both with players I keep and deal.  This year I've been very quiet (I suspect just about all of you know since I've gone from sending emails about deal ideas weekly, sometimes daily, to eerily silent) due to workload on both my primary job and side passions like FFCollective, TheWino.net and this site. 

Braylon Edwards for Jerry Porter, Garrett Wolfe & an '08 Rookie Pick

The Salem Beavercats and the I.M.T. announce a three player trade. 

I.M.T. receives WR Jerry Porter ($11, 2009), RB Garrett Wolfe ($10, 2009) and SB's 2008 rookie pick, Salem Beavercats acquire WR Braylon Edwards ($26, 2007) and a 2008 DS spot. 

Net Present Value in a Keeper League

In our fantasy football league, we have a complex contractual system that allows teams to keep players up to 6+ years.  We have a set salary cap ($500 a year) and allow teams to place players on long-term contract, which secures them for 3 seasons (that can be extended one year by placing them on an inactive Developmental Squad spot - each team gets 2 of these which are transferable), at the end of those three years a team has the right to keep them for another three years at which time they must be available to the general league for auction.  Which leads us to the purpose of this post, what is the short vs. long term value of fantasy football players. 

Free Agent Market?

Here is the latest email shit talk from the active but not typepad/blog capable owner of the Team Kitty.

My lord people are free flowing with their cash. . . Andre Davis for $15?  I put in a bid of $3, withdrew it and changed it to $2.  I was nearly positive I'd get him.

Also, can we talk about the Sportsline Guru placing the Trippers as a 2 point favorite against Team Kitty despite the fact that he is last in the league in points, he has the league's worst record, the second worst breakdown and he is #16 in the power rankings (TK is #3)?

Nevertheless, we predict a Trippers victory. . .

Hot Free Agent / Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 2

Here are the week 3 top free agent / waiver wire pickups.  In my fantasy league we have 16 teams which start 9 guys each (no defense, 1 Kicker, 1 TE, 2 RB, 2 WR & 1 QB with 2 flex spots).  So these may not be relevant to all fantasy leaguers but most are valuable guys who either will immediately have value or will in weeks ahead.   

Week One Free Agent Auction Results

Below are the free agent drafts for the league's team week one.  If anybody has questions or comments, please post them below.    

Top Free Agent / Waiver Wire Fantasy Pickups

Ok, this won't be relevant for all fantasy leaguers because the PAFFL is an extremely deep league (16 teams w/ 20+ players per team) but below is a list of some of the top free agent or waiver wire pickups in fantasy leagues.  Remember not all these are relevant but as noted some if not all could be extremely valuable in the weeks ahead as the NFL season gets into future weeks.    

Which Colleges Produce the most NFL talent?

The FootballOutsider.com site, from the creators of the Pro Football Prospectus, did an analysis of which colleges produce the most professional (NFL) talent.  They created a point system which credits each school for producing draft picks (sliding scale down for 1st thru 7th round selections), NFL starters, Pro Bowlers, etc.

ProFootball Prospectus - an invaluable evaluation tool

The Short Bus hooked me up with one of the most remarkable sources of football information I have ever come across, the Pro Football Prospectus 2007.  Think Bill James for football, its using statistical analysis to truly determine the value of players at their core.  Football is tough because it truly is a team sport, outside of maybe Barry Sanders with the Detroit Lions, I can't think of a single NFL player (specifically skill position player) who was successful despite of his teammates.       

Selecting an NFL QB

ESPN's Floyd Reese, the former Tennessee Titans GM from 1995 thru 2006, wrote a nice piece on the selection process of QB Vince Young last season.  He discusses their specific situation last season and how it effected their thinking going into the draft. 

Drew Stanton Out For Season

Detroit Lions rookie QB Drew Stanton was put on injured reserve today, after having surgery to repair damage to a knee injured last Saturday.  This will be a big set back as far as his development in regard to taking over for Kitna anytime soon.  Fantasy owners in keeper leagues will have to wait a little longer for return on investment.  By fantasy owners, I mean IMT....

Fantasy Football Draft Guide for 2007 Season

Fantasy Football league draft or auctions are starting to take shape.  'Tis the season so to speak as we turn the corner into August.  Most leagues probably won't form and hold their annual gatherings until the end of August or early September but that's no reason to not start thinking about and planning for that day.  For those of us who absolutely LOVE fantasy football, the week of NFL training camp openings is not too dissimilar from the start of the twelve days of Christmas, they both lead to my favorite time of the year.  Below is a guide to help your planning for the 2007 fantasy football season. 

Top NFL Rookies - Projected PAFFL Rookie Selections

The PAFFL has sixteen rookie pick selections, which allow each of its franchises to control (either out right or thru a topper) a rookie.  The right can also be traded for value at any time, thus many franchises will leverage a future rookie pick for value in the current season.  The league has made the selection of rookies part of the year round discussion of trade because each pick can be immediately signed for $55 or topped (which means the pick/player is available in the next day's auction and the team that owns its 'topper' rights can take them for $1 more than the final bid in the auction).  It may sound complicated but its straight forward, so without further ado here are my projected rookie selections for 2007. 

Rotonews Sleepers & Busts..

Rotonews (or are they calling themselves Rotowire this week?) published their annual NFL Sleepers & Busts for the upcoming NFL season.  It's a paid subscription service but can be read in their print publication (Rotowire) or online.  We've listed their selections below but you must pay to read their analysis. 

2001 NFL Draft Recap....

The 2001 NFL draft brought some of the biggest stars to the league but surprisingly some of them were after the coveted first round.  LaDainian Tomlinson (#5 Overall) is far and away the prize of this draft but folks like Chad Johnson (2nd round), Steve Smith (3rd round) and TJ Houshmandzadeh (7th Round).  The full list is below and analysis can be found here at FBKids blog. 

Sleepers & Busts

Protrade, a wall street stock trading platform for pro athletes, has a community that posted a long article on NFL sleepers and busts for 2007.  Far from an authority, its still nice to get additional opinion and ideas when it comes to the all important Sleepers & Busts!

Impact NFC Rookies ESPN style...

ESPN's Todd McShay published his, team by team, look at which rookies will make an impact in the NFC in 2007.  He predicted Detroit Lions WR Calvin Johnson will be a stud and Minnesota Vikings RB Adrian Peterson will be the offensive rookie of the year. 

Rookie RB's Recent History

According to VikingsUpdate.com, there was plenty of celebrating among Vikings fans when the team took RB Adrian Peterson with the seventh pick in the 2007 draft. But there has never been a lead-pipe consensus on how rookie running backs will fare.

Brady Quinn to hold out? Frye may start by default

The Cincinnati Enquirer reports the Cleveland Browns, despite trading up to make QB Brady Quinn their second first-round pick, don't really want the rookie quarterback playing early in his rookie season. Browns coaches would like to see QB Charlie Frye maintain the job. Cleveland might not have all the say in the Quinn situation. Browns insiders say there's a good chance agent Tom Condon will hold out Quinn once training camp starts.

Mining for rookie WR gold...

Dynasty Fantasy League did an analysis by position of how likely rookies at various positions will succeed using the past 8 years of draft picks.  This analysis was for the wide receiver (WR) position. Over the past 8 years there have been 34 1st round WR's selected.  Of that group, only 3 have become 'studs', 7 'producers', 5 'spot starters' and 19 'busts'.  So over 70% became fantasy reserves at best.  What this shows is that rookie WR's are a crap shoot and its easier to gauge who will develop on the NFL level after a season or two of playing time. 

Mining for rookie RB Gold...

Dynasty Fantasy League did an analysis by position of how likely rookies at various positions will succeed using the past 8 years of draft picks.  This particular analysis was for the RB position.  What they found was that a very high percentage of 1st round selections (70%+) turned into 'producers' (players who were consistent fantasy starters), and in particular the first two selections of each draft were highly successful. 

2007 Rookie Draft Prospect Analysis from DFL

Dynasty Football League reviews the top NFL rookie's from the 2007 draft.  Nothing particularly surprising with their rankings but their analysis is worth a read.

Mining for rookie QB Gold?

Dynasty League Football did an analysis of QB's selected in the last eight drafts to determine are their truly 'gems' found outside of the 1st round.  Their conclusion is that no, with the exception of a few guys (such as Drew Brees who was the 1st pick of the 2nd round or Tom Brady, and of course folks that develop after years of maturing in the NFL) its remote to find a stud or even a consistent performer outside of the 1st round at the QB position.

2nd Year Player's to Watch?

ESPN's Scott Engel wrote an article listing out second year player's to watch.  Some of them are obvious, such as Minnesota Vikings projected starting QB Tavaris Jackson but there are some nuggets in there: Miami's WR Derek Hagan, Cleveland's WR Travis Wilson, Denver's WR Brandon Marshall among many others.  They are listed below.

Brady Quinn can take a team 'On his Shoulders'

The NYTimes wrote a nice piece on the 'hard sell' Notre Dame head coach Charlie Weis put on the Cleveland Browns GM Phil Savage and their head coach Romeo Crennel for QB Brady Quinn.  All three worked together for much of the past two decades and remain close friends.  The article does a good job of reporting Weis' belief in Quinn's ability to 'take a team on his shoulders' and the work ethic to be one of the top QB's in the NFL. 

Donovan McNabb a lame duck in Phily?

The Trenton Times & ESPN have separately reported that Philadelphia Eagles QB Donovan McNabb could be on his way out of Phily after this season.  Partly as a result of him being due to make $5.5 million this season, $6.3 million in 2008, $9.2 million in 2009 and then a balloon payment of $10 million during the final year of his contract in 2010. But also as a result of him turning 31 in November and entering an age that the Eagles have shown the door to other veteran players in the Andy Reid era.

Draft Picks by Conference

NFL.com's Gil Brandt published a draft factoid from last week's effort.  The Pac-10 didn't fare as well (it was 4th among conferences) but over the past 17 years its number 3, and it was the only conference to have a player from EVERY school selected. 

RB Kolby Smith, #148 Overall Pick, Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs selected Louisville RB Kolby Smith with the #148 overall selection (#10 pick in the 5th round) in the 2007 NFL draft.  Smith, a college career backup, got his chance last season when the starter Michael Bush broke his leg in the opener.  He ended up being named a 2nd team all Big East Conference selection while helping the team to ten plus wins.  He's a deep sleeper but could surprise as a backup to Larr Johnson.