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2008 NFL Rookie Values Redux

Ok, I did this right after the NFL draft in April but following OTA's & mini-camps, and the stupidity of veterans (such as Cedric Benson) a lot has changed since then.  So I wanted to take another pass at this.             

Week 10 Waiver Wire / Free Agent Pickups

Each week I attempt to compile a diverse list of potential Waiver Wire / Free Agent pickups for week 10 of the NFL season.  I play in a 16 team league where we start 9 players (no defense, only 1 kicker) so we're always looking for that #3 QB or RB who emerges to be the final piece on a playoff run. 

Each week I attempt to compile a diverse list of potential Waiver Wire / Free Agent pickups for week 10 of the NFL season.  I play in a 16 team league where we start 9 players (no defense, only 1 kicker) so we're always looking for that #3 QB or RB who emerges to be the final piece on a playoff run. 

Chris Chambers for a future rookie pick

The Jack Trippers and Salem Beavercats have consummated a trade. 

Jack Trippers acquire WR Chris Chambers ($26, '07) from SB for $5 in '07 cap space, a DS spot in '08 & JT's next rookie pick*

7 Shaky QB Situations

The SportingNews wrote an overview of seven quarterback situations that entering camp appear to be shaky or unsettled.  The teams range from playoff contenders like Jacksonville to teams simply looking for respectability such as Cleveland and Oakland. 

Buy Low? How Low? Chris Simms Low! Chris Henry Low! Ricky Williams Low?

The rich get richer in fantasy leagues when they know how to snag a player on the heels of some (or a lot) of bad news.  In an educated league like ours, swooping in at the right time can be highly profitable. 

John Clayton's Top 5 Surprise Teams for 2007

ESPN's John Clayton published his top 5 sleeper teams for 2007.  They were selected for their progress in the off-season and their respective schedules. 

Daunte Culpepper a Jaguar?

According to ProFootballWeekly, The Jaguars have made no secret about their interest in Dolphins QB Daunte Culpepper. Soon after the Dolphins acquired QB Trent Green in a trade with the Chiefs, the Jaguars held an organizational meeting to evaluate Culpepper, who had his best campaigns in Minnesota under Jaguars assistant head coach Mike Tice. The Jaguars’ coaches even told their top two quarterbacks, Byron Leftwich and David Garrard, about their interest in Culpepper. We hear there is almost no chance the Jaguars would trade for Culpepper, but they will be at the head of the line to sign Culpepper if the Dolphins release him.

NFL QB Team by Team Analysis

NFL.com's Michael Fabiano analyzed all 32 NFL team's Quarterback position for fantasy production.  He didn't go into as much detail as some may like but for the majority (AKA no keeper leagues) of fantasy leaguers it'll be a good overview by team. 

Trent Green expected to lead Miami offense to 20+ points a game

ESPN's John Clayton reports Miami Dolphins QB Trent Green is expected to fit in well with new HC Cam Cameron's offense which is based on efficiency and accuracy. No current quarterback has spent as much time in the Mike Martz-Norv Turner system as Green, who learned it back in his Redskins days when Cameron was the quarterbacks coach.

Trent Green officially a Dolphin, expected to start

ESPN's Len Pasquarelli reports the Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins finally reached agreement on the much-anticipated trade of QB Trent Green. Miami agreed to send a fifth-round choice in the 2008 draft to the Chiefs in exchange for Green.

NFL.com's AFC East Team's Fantasy Overview...

NFL.com's Michael Fabiano is publishing overviews of each division by team of their fantasy value including schedule strength (against run & pass) and listing of each team's top 5 fantasy performers.  I've listed the top 5 for each team below and the overall summaries are good.  Some of this is academic but for fantasy nuts, its worth diving into the details.  This is for the AFC East teams.

Trent Green to remain in KC?

In a battle of wills between the Kansas City Chiefs general manager, Carl Peterson, Trent Green and the Miami Dolphins has taken a step backwards.  On Tuesday Peterson said Green could stay with KC and be their starter in 2007.  But just about everybody senses that head coach Herman Edwards wants to go with 2nd year man Brodie Croyle or veteran Damon Huard, plus its unclear whether the Chiefs can handle Green's $7.2 million salary for 2007.  So Peterson is bluffing to get some value out of the Dolphins for Green. 

Ricky Williams tested positive for weed, again!

ESPN's Chris Mortensen reports Miami Dolphins RB Ricky Williams tested positive for marijuana in April and will not be allowed to apply for reinstatement to the NFL until September. Williams was suspended last year for violation of the substance abuse policy and was eligible to be reinstated this month, but the league's medical advisors that oversee Williams' personal rehabilitation program recently notified commissioner Roger Goodell of the positive test, sources said.

RB Lorenzo Booker, #71 Overall Pick, Miami Dolphins

Miami Dolphins selected Florida State RB Lorenzo Booker with the #71 overall selection (#7 in the 3rd round) in the 2007 NFL draft. Booker, one of the great all-time high school players in California, is a 3rd down type of back who can catch and make big plays but may never have the size to be an every down back.   

Miami Dolphins selected Florida State RB Lorenzo Booker with the #71 overall selection (#7 in the 3rd round) in the 2007 NFL draft. Booker, one of the great all-time high school players in California, is a 3rd down type of back who can catch and make big plays but may never have the size to be an every down back.   

Miami Dolphins selected Florida State RB Lorenzo Booker with the #71 overall selection (#7 in the 3rd round) in the 2007 NFL draft. Booker, one of the great all-time high school players in California, is a 3rd down type of back who can catch and make big plays but may never have the size to be an every down back.   

Miami Dolphins selected Florida State RB Lorenzo Booker with the #71 overall selection (#7 in the 3rd round) in the 2007 NFL draft. Booker, one of the great all-time high school players in California, is a 3rd down type of back who can catch and make big plays but may never have the size to be an every down back.   

QB John Beck, #40 Overall Selection, Miami Dolphins

Miami Dolphins selected BYU QB John Beck with the #40 overall selection (#8 of the 2nd round) in the 2007 NFL draft.  Beck is a 26 year old mature college QB, who many compare to Drew Brees, could start sooner than many realize in the NFL, which maybe necessary given the current depth of Miami Dolphins quarterbacks.
 

Miami Dolphins selected BYU QB John Beck with the #40 overall selection (#8 of the 2nd round) in the 2007 NFL draft.  Beck is a 26 year old mature college QB, who many compare to Drew Brees, could start sooner than many realize in the NFL, which maybe necessary given the current depth of Miami Dolphins quarterbacks.
 

WR Ted Ginn Jr., #9 overal pick, Miami Dolphins

Miami Dolphins selected Ohio State WR Ted Ginn Jr. with the #9 overall selection in the 2007 NFL draft.  Ginn is a dynamic, home run hitter WR and kick returner who adds speed and big play ability to the  Dolphins.

Miami Dolphins selected Ohio State WR Ted Ginn Jr. with the #9 overall selection in the 2007 NFL draft.  Ginn is a dynamic, home run hitter WR and kick returner who adds speed and big play ability to the  Dolphins.

Trent Green Going to Miami?

The Palm Beach Post reports a new contract for QB Trent Green is holding up a possible deal that would send the former Pro Bowl quarterback from Kansas City to the Dolphins, sources said Wednesday. The Dolphins, like the Chiefs, want Green to take a major pay cut from the $7.2, $7.7 and $9.2 million the 36-year-old veteran is due over the next three seasons - the final three years on his current contract. Miami doesn't want to pay Green, who will turn 37 in July, much more than the NFL veteran's minimum, which is $820,000 in 2007. To acquire Green, the Dolphins likely would trade the second seventh-round draft pick they obtained from New England for WR Wes Welker.

Randy McMichael gets $11 million from St. Louis Rams

ESPN reported that recently released former Miami Dolphins TE Randy McMichael signed a three year agreement for approximately $11 million with a $3 million signing bonus.  McMichael was a fourth-round choice in the 2002 draft, he has 282 career catches for 3,096 yards and 18 touchdowns in his career. He is also durable, as evidenced by the fact he has never missed a game in his career, appearing in 80 straight contests, all as a starter.

'Big Daddy' Wilkinson acquired by Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos, who have made a habit in recent years of trading for one-time high-round defensive linemen,  acquired defensive tackle Dan "Big Daddy" Wilkinson from the Miami Dolphins for a sixth round selection in the 2007 NFL draft.

read more | digg story

Patriots sign RFA WR Wes Welker to Huge Offer Sheet

According to the NFL Network Adam Schefter, the New England Patriots have signed Miami restricted free-agent WR Wes Welker to a seven-year offers sheet worth $38.5 million. Once Welker signs the offer sheet, the Dolphins will have seven days to match it. If they decide not to, they would get the Patriots' second-round draft pick.  Welker would presumably be a replacement for veteran Troy Brown and fill an all purpose role as a kick returner and slot receiver. 

Patriots sign RB Sammy Morris

ESPN is reporting the NE Patriots have signed veteran RB Sammy Morris.  Morris likely will backup 2nd year player Laurence Maroney and provide the team experience at the position.  Expect Morris to be a change of pace option & primary backup to Maroney, while veteran Kevin Faulk remains the 3rd down guy in New England. 

Cam Cameron Selected as next Miami HC

The Miami Dolphins signed San Diego's offensive coordinator Cam Cameron to a four year agreement. Cameron has demonstrated he's a top offensive mind after joining the Chargers in 2002 from Indiana where he was their head coach.  Cameron turned San Diego's offense into one of the NFL's best using LT as his center piece along with Antonio Gates, Drew Brees and this past season Phillip Rivers.

Ricky Williams to return to Miami?

Former Heisman trophy winning, currently suspended, Canadian Football League RB Ricky Williams apparently hopes to return to the Miami Dolphins in 2007.  Williams supposedly has passed all his league impossed drug tests and should not have any problems being reinstated in April. 

Miami's Nick Saban leaving for Alabama job

Contrary to reports from Nick Saban himself, he has accepted the position with the University of Alabama to become their next head coach and leaves Miami now looking for a new head man.  Saban reportedly is getting an eight year deal for $32 million, all guaranteed, with incentives that could push it up another $600k to $800k in bowl game performance bonuses.  Given his lack of success in Miami, both in terms of record and producing fantasy studs, this can't be considered a terrible thing.  However watch for the new hire closely as the Dolphins have plenty of pieces in place (Ronnie Brown, Chris Chambers & Randy McMichael) for a nice fantasy nucleus. 

'Fins shut down Daunte Culpepper for the year...

The Miami Dolphins made it official yesterday by placing injured QB Daunte Culpepper on injured reserve, ending his 2006 season for good.  Culpepper aggravated his injured knee early in the season and was never effective for Miami who turned to backup Joey Harrington.  Harrington has led them to a 6-7 record (going 5-4 himself) but hasn't shown the franchise QB abilities that made him the #3 overall selection by Detroit. 

Analysis: Culpepper should return next summer healthy with an opportunity to regain the starting spot.  With his natural athletic ability and strong arm he could be back among the top 15 fantasy QB's but there is now a question mark on his long-term ability so he's far from a sure thing. 

Culpepper's Knee Pain!

Daunte Culpepper celebrated his one year anniversary of knee surgery by talking with the media for the first time in a month.  He still experiences sharp pain and was non-committal on when he may return. 

Daunte Culpepper is overrated?

I still don't understand why Daunte Culpepper is considered a franchise QB whereas Aaron Brooks is a retread likely on his last opportunity in Oakland? 

Brooks career record is just below .500 playing for a team that is well below .500 for its lifetime, the NO Saints.  His seasonal averages over the past five years are 22.2 TD's, 15 interceptions, 3500 yards passing as well as 250 yards, 2 td's rushing and 4.3 fumbles lost.  One interesting note, the NO Saints have won only one playoff game in their history, started by Brooks in 2000 against the defending super bowl champion St. Louis Rams. 

Culpepper's career record is better but only slightly so playing on a team that had gone to the playoffs seven consecutive seasons before Culpepper arrived.  In Culpepper's six seasons as the Vikings starting QB, they qualified for the playoffs in only three of them.  His seasonal averages over the six years are 22.5 TD's, 14.3 interceptions & 3360 yards passing, along with 412 yards, 4.8 TD's and 6 fumbles lost. 

Ricky Williams signs w/ CFL's Toronto Argonauts

ESPN has reported that the Miami Dolphins have granted RB Ricky Williams the ability to play in the CFL and he has signed a one year agreement for $240k.  There is no team option for a 2nd year, meaning Williams will be free to return to Miami for the 2007 season assuming he is reinstated next season.  For dynasty league participants, Williams is an intriguing option since his talent is unquestioned - however remember he will return to the NFL at thirty years old as a backup to Ronnie Brown.

Ricky Williams Suspended for 2006 Season...

Miami Dolphins RB Ricky Williams was officially suspended for the 2006 season today after his appeal was denied by the NFL league office. File this one under the, not too surprised. Williams not only has failed three other drug tests but he spent nearly six months telling just about anybody who would listen how much he liked to smoke marijuana and that he was done with professional football. Then approximately four months after that he came to his senses (and need to make alimony & child support payments) and decided to return in 2005.

Look for the Miami Dolphins to take a back in the 3rd or 4th round of the draft as they're in need of depth and support.

Here is Sportline article on this
ESPN article

QB Carousel in the NFL Today

In a span of a few hours major developments happened across the NFL to change the QB landscape for no fewer than six teams and possibly more.

To recap:

• Miami acquired QB Daunte Culpepper from Minnesota for a 2nd round pick. This leaves Gus Frerotte as a backup or possibly in the market if Miami can't stomach his contract, a likely scenario. It also elevates Brad Johnson into the starter's role in Minnesota and makes them a buyer, likely looking for a younger QB who they can develop to take over for the 36 year old Johnson in '07 or '08. This move improves Brad Johnson's fantasy value, significantly reduces Gus Frerotte's and slightly decreases Daunte Culpepper's since he goes from a dynamic offense in Minnesota to a run first style in Miami.
• New Orleans Saints signed FA QB Drew Brees to a reported $60 million 6 year deal w/ $10 million signing bonus. This ensures that Philip Rivers will be atop the depth chart in San Diego and makes them a buyer in the market for a quality veteran backup. This also will put QB Aaron Brooks on the market since NO's will release him in the next day or two. Brooks is much maligned but he has an impressive career resume that includes a nearly .500 career record for one of NFL's worst franchises and a career QB rating of 80 w/ 120 TD's, 84 interceptions & over 19k yards passing. This move reduces Drew Brees' value slightly since he loses the comfort of Antonio Gates & LT, it significantly improves Phillip Rivers value since he's the undisputed starter in SD now and it significantly reduces the value of Aaron Brooks since he'll be released.
• Detroit Lions signed FA QB Jon Kitna to a reported 4 year deal that includes a signing bonus between $3 million & $4 million. This puts the pressure on Joey Harrington and sets up an interesting training camp battle. It also makes the Cincinnati Bengals in the market looking for a quality veteran backup, maybe Gus Frerotte would be a good fit here. This is not nearly as significant as the first two moves but it does improve the value of Jon Kitna since he moves into a position where one can reasonably expect him to start at least a few games in '06 (Harrington hasn't been able to start an entire season's games yet).

What's left in the QB market?

• Patrick Ramsey - he's available in a trade and will be dealt in the next day or two, likely to the NY Jets who want to bring in protection against another Chad Pennington injury.


• Aaron Brooks - he is the most productive player on the market but is maligned due to a perception that he's not a winner.


• Kerry Collins - rumors are that he'll end up in Baltimore to battle Kyle Boller but he has yet to visit and the Raiders could resign him.


• Gus Frerotte - he'll be a backup in Cincinnati or Minnesota, though don't rule out the NY Jets either.

It will be an interesting few weeks as Free Agency continues on and the NFL draft approaches but few days will be as fast paced or meaningful for the QB position than this. It's getting me excited for the upcoming season.

2005 PAFFL Auction Weekend Recap...

Thanks to everybody for a great auction weekend...we're getting tamer in our old age but there was plenty of fun to be had.  Here are some of the pictures from the festivities..

Burchard fullfilling the annual champion's duties...

Poker's all the rage these days...at least the rest of us could drink.

If anybody has more pics from the weekend, send them to me and I'll include them here.  Looking forward to the winter meetings in December/January. 

Thanks,

Josh