PAFFL.com

LFP goes on a trade binge...

The Los Frijoles Pintos completed two other deals this afternoon.

2008 NFL Rookie Values Redux

Ok, I did this right after the NFL draft in April but following OTA's & mini-camps, and the stupidity of veterans (such as Cedric Benson) a lot has changed since then.  So I wanted to take another pass at this.             

RB Share Situations - New Blood from the 2008 NFL Draft

The NFL draft always brings some surprises but one guarantee you can always count on is new blood, an infusion of 250+ players who are young, healthy and hungry to make it in the NFL.  In a professional sport that carries a career expectancy of approximately 3.2 years for a drafted player, many joke that NFL stands for 'Not For Long'.  For fantasy leaguers, particularly dynasty league participants (where you keep players for longer than a single year), the NFL draft represents new blood, players who shift current player's values and new opportunities for fantasy success.  One trend that people will start talking about a lot more, and expect to see this all over the 2008 fantasy football guides that get published in June, is the NFL shift to Two Back systems where one running back maybe gets a majority of the carries between the 20's and then another one comes in for the goal line work, short yardage or third down opportunities.  The NY Giants won the super bowl with this strategy, and New England has employed it during their reign the past eight years to great success. So while having competent backups has always been the goal, the NFL is moving towards a trend of literally have two guys who could be considered the starter.  For fantasy this means fewer true 'featured backs' and more ambiguity as to who is the 'right' guy to start week to week.

Thanksgiving Day Football

With all the holiday planning, don't forget that there are 3 NFL games this year on Thanksgiving.  The traditional two with Detroit playing Green Bay in the day's most interesting game, then Dallas hosting the New York Jets in what likely will be a blow out and the NFL Network showcasing a night game between the Indy Colts and Atlanta Falcons.  For all of you with fantasy players on those teams (ok, you shouldn't need to worry about Atlanta or Jets but the Colts, Packers, Cowboys and Lions have plenty of fantasy talent to go around), don't forget to set your respective lineup. 

Looking to make deals

I know I always believe I have an obscene amount of talent but sense I scout and spend more time on this than most people, in the PAFFL and in general, I typically end up having success both with players I keep and deal.  This year I've been very quiet (I suspect just about all of you know since I've gone from sending emails about deal ideas weekly, sometimes daily, to eerily silent) due to workload on both my primary job and side passions like FFCollective, TheWino.net and this site. 

Hot Free Agent / Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 2

Here are the week 3 top free agent / waiver wire pickups.  In my fantasy league we have 16 teams which start 9 guys each (no defense, 1 Kicker, 1 TE, 2 RB, 2 WR & 1 QB with 2 flex spots).  So these may not be relevant to all fantasy leaguers but most are valuable guys who either will immediately have value or will in weeks ahead.   

JaMarcus Russell for Roy Williams? Only in Fantasy Football

The Los Frijoles Pintos and Fightin' Irie consummated a trade this week. 

The Irie acquired QB JaMarcus Russell & K Phil Dawson while also agreeing to swap their lower pick next year with LFP for WR Roy Williams & K Neil Rackers and the higher rookie pick in 2008. 

RB T.J. Duckett for a future rookie pick...

Ron Jeremy Fanclub and Salem Beavercats have completed a trade. 

Ron Jeremy acquires RB T.J. Duckett from the Salem Beavercats for $2 in '07 cap room and RJ's next non top 5 rookie pick, SB has the right to pass one time on a non top 5 selection. 

Drew Stanton Out For Season

Detroit Lions rookie QB Drew Stanton was put on injured reserve today, after having surgery to repair damage to a knee injured last Saturday.  This will be a big set back as far as his development in regard to taking over for Kitna anytime soon.  Fantasy owners in keeper leagues will have to wait a little longer for return on investment.  By fantasy owners, I mean IMT....

Jarrett the No. 1 rookie WR in non-keeper drafts?

Carolina's Keyshawn Johnson was a solid spot-starter last year, w/800 yards and 5 total TDs.  He came pretty cheap at our draft and provided my team with much-needed WR depth.  Look for Dwayne Jarrett to walk right in and fill Keyshawn's role, which is what the team had in mind when it drafted Jarrett with the 45th overall pick and let Me-Shawn go (apologies to our Palo Alto schoolmate, Kristin Coleman, who is marrying Keyshawn, is rumored to be a key catalyst behind his decision to retire, and I'm sure is better at keeping his ego in check than most NFL coaches). 

John Clayton's Top 5 Surprise Teams for 2007

ESPN's John Clayton published his top 5 sleeper teams for 2007.  They were selected for their progress in the off-season and their respective schedules. 

J.T. O'Sullivan Optimistic in Detroit

The Detroit News reports newly signed Lions QB J.T. O'Sullivan might have found the perfect situation in Detroit. The Lions are inexperienced behind incumbent starting QB Jon Kitna, and it's conceivable O'Sullivan could compete with current backups Dan Orlovsky and Drew Stanton. Couple that with the fact OC Mike Martz has experience with unknown quarterbacks (i.e., QB Kurt Warner and QB Mark Bulger), O'Sullivan is optimistic. "The way I'm going to approach camp is to go in there and work hard and prepare," he said. "You get into trouble when you start worrying about making a roster or not making a roster. I'm going to let the people who make those decisions make those decisions." The Lions also have undrafted rookie QB Phil Horvath (Northern Illinois) on the roster.

NFL QB Team by Team Analysis

NFL.com's Michael Fabiano analyzed all 32 NFL team's Quarterback position for fantasy production.  He didn't go into as much detail as some may like but for the majority (AKA no keeper leagues) of fantasy leaguers it'll be a good overview by team. 

Jon Kitna sets goal of 50 TD passes in '07

The Detroit Free Press reports having already made waves by saying the Lions will win 10 games this year, QB Jon Kitna mentioned another far-out figure during an appearance on ESPN's "Mike and Mike in the Morning" radio show Friday. Asked how many touchdown passes he will throw this season, Kitna replied: "We've been joking around as the passing-game crew -- the receivers and tights ends and stuff -- we've been breaking down our little huddles saying '50' and all that stuff. "But we know that's an awful lofty goal."

Jon Kitna predicts 10+ Wins

ESPN reports the Detroit Lions haven't had a winning record since 2000 and haven't won 10 games since 1995. That's all going to change in 2007, according to QB Jon Kitna.  Appearing on WDFN-AM in Detroit on Thursday, Kitna predicted that the Lions will win more than 10 games this season. The Lions were 3-13 in 2006. In March, Kitna said the Lions would win 10 games in 2007, but after seeing the team's schedule he adjusted his prediction -- higher. "I'll keep to myself what I think we actually will win. But it's more than 10 games," Kitna said.

RB T.J. Duckett impressing Lions

The Detroit Free Press reports Lions RB T.J. Duckett is running well at minicamp. He would burst through the line – remember, no contact – and run all the way down the field into the end zone, instead of pulling up after 10 yards or so. That’s what HC Rod Marinelli is looking for. "T.J.? What a hard worker,” quarterback Jon Kitna said. “He’s come in, and he’s been a leader in running drills and the off-season program. Then out here, every time he gets the ball, he takes it to the end zone, 70 yards or whatever it is. He just kind of puts his head down and goes. He’s a Marinelli guy, I would imagine."

QB Drew Stanton, #43 Overall Selection, Detroit Lions

Detroit Lions selected Michigan State QB Drew Stanton with the #43 overall selection (#11 in the 2nd round) in the 2007 NFL draft.  Stanton has a good combination of size, arm strength and mobility to be a quality NFL starter but he needs time to develop.

Detroit Lions selected Michigan State QB Drew Stanton with the #43 overall selection (#11 in the 2nd round) in the 2007 NFL draft.  Stanton has a good combination of size, arm strength and mobility to be a quality NFL starter but he needs time to develop.

QB Josh McCown & WR Mike Williams dealt to the Oakland Raiders

ESPN's on air NFL Draft team is reporting the Oakland Raiders have traded for QB Josh McCown and WR Mike Williams formerly of the Detroit Lions for a 4th round selection in this year's draft - the #1 of that round.  This deal makes sense for Detroit since Williams has long been rumored to be on his way out and they selected the draft's #1 WR in Calvin Johnson, plus the Lions took a QB of the future in the 2nd round in Drew Stanton. 

WR Calvin Johnson, #2 Overall Pick, Detroit Lions

Detroit Lions selected Georgia Tech WR Calvin Johnson with the #2 overall pick in the 2007 NFL draft.  Calvin Johnson is rated by most draft experts as the top talent on the draft board this year so the Lions took their 4th top 10 WR selection in the past five years - an unprecedented number.  Forget history though because Johnson should be a dynamic player who will pair with Roy Williams to become the best WR tandem in the NFL. 
   

WR Marcus Robinson signs w/ Detroit Lions

ESPN reported the Detroit Lions signed WR Marcus Robinson and WR Cliff Russell and re-signed CB Keith Smith today. 
The Robinson signing likely drops any chance the Lions may have had in drafting Calvin Johnson in this weekend's draft and secures Detroit's receiving core for the 2007 season. 

Detroit Lions Running Back Situation in 2007?

The Detroit Free Press reports Lions HC Rod Marinelli said the team was hopeful that RB Kevin Jones, who suffered a foot injury last season, would be ready for training camp. "Everybody keeps talking that he may have a shot for training camp," Marinelli said. "We'll see. He's working extremely hard, but you just don't know." The acquisition of former Broncos RB Tatum Bell (through trade) and former Falcon RB T.J. Duckett (free agency) provide the team with insurance if Jones isn't able to come back. "One thing Tatum does is give us that home-run hit," Marinelli said. "His speed is something we need. He's a guy who can make somebody miss and go 70 yards. We don't have a lot of that on our team."

T.J. Duckett signs with Detroit Lions

NFL.com's Adam Schefter reports free-agent RB T.J. Duckett (Redskins) agreed to terms with the Detroit Lions on a one-year contract. The $1.5 million deal sends Duckett back to Michigan, where he starred at Michigan State.  Duckett will be motivated to resurrect his career for a larger pay day in 2008. 

Lions Pick up RB Tatum Bell in trade with Broncos

ESPN's Michael Smith reports the Detroit Lions have agreed to send CB Dre' Bly to the Denver Broncos in exchange for RB Tatum Bell, OT George Foster and a draft choice, believed to be a fifth-round pick. Trades cannot become official until Friday, the first day of the league year.  Bell provides the Lions a nice combo package with Kevin Jones (as well as insurance against Jones' rehab).  It reduces Kevin Jones' fantasy value a little and opens up a huge hole in Denver, which quickly becomes one of the more intriguing off-season fantasy stories. 

Furrey gets a 3 year Contract from Lions

One of the better breakout years in the NFL was turned in by former defensive back turned wide receiver Mike Furrey in the Detroit Lions new Mike Martz led offense.  For the year Furrey ended up with 98 catches, 1086 yards and 6 TD's, setting the mark for most catches by a non-rookie who had none the previous year.  For his effort, the Lions gave Furrey a 3 year contract extension, the terms of which were not disclosed. 

Lions Kevin Jones done for season, '07 in Jeopardy?

The Detroit Lions Kevin Jones suffered a Lisfranc fracture to his foot in Sunday's game versus Minnesota.  It occurred in the 4th quarter while trying to cross the goalline.  Jones is out for the remainder of this season and likely will miss all of training camp and a portion of the 2007 season. 

Analysis: Drop Jones in seasonal leagues; and think about dropping him in keeper leagues as he likely won't be full speed until 2008. 

Harrington Done In Detroit!

With Thursday's signing of FA QB Josh McCown by the Detroit Lions, following their signing Tuesday of FA veteran QB Jon Kitna, the end of Joey Harrington's time in Detroit is near. The 3rd overall selection in the 2002 draft, Harrington was known as an accurate, clutch quarterback who took the University of Oregon to new heights (nearly a rose bowl game) with a finishing top 5 ranking his senior year. Harrington was looked upon as a relatively sure thing when the draft came along. So what happened?

Well for one Harrington started his career without much offensive talent around him. His rookie year was marred by an inability to run the football and a lack of quality receivers. However in his second season they added Charles Rogers, which began a three year run of selecting receivers with top ten overall picks (Roy Williams in '04 at 7 & Mike Williams in '05 at 10). Furthermore they added a quality run back, Kevin Jones, in '04 who radically improved the running game that season. But thru it all Harrington's numbers never improved enough to justify keeping him in the lineup. His statistics did tick up in '04 but the most important one, wins, never did and at the end of the day that's the only number anybody cares about.
So where does this leave Harrington?
I suspect he'll catch on somewhere as a backup but will he someday be a starter?

QB Carousel in the NFL Today

In a span of a few hours major developments happened across the NFL to change the QB landscape for no fewer than six teams and possibly more.

To recap:

• Miami acquired QB Daunte Culpepper from Minnesota for a 2nd round pick. This leaves Gus Frerotte as a backup or possibly in the market if Miami can't stomach his contract, a likely scenario. It also elevates Brad Johnson into the starter's role in Minnesota and makes them a buyer, likely looking for a younger QB who they can develop to take over for the 36 year old Johnson in '07 or '08. This move improves Brad Johnson's fantasy value, significantly reduces Gus Frerotte's and slightly decreases Daunte Culpepper's since he goes from a dynamic offense in Minnesota to a run first style in Miami.
• New Orleans Saints signed FA QB Drew Brees to a reported $60 million 6 year deal w/ $10 million signing bonus. This ensures that Philip Rivers will be atop the depth chart in San Diego and makes them a buyer in the market for a quality veteran backup. This also will put QB Aaron Brooks on the market since NO's will release him in the next day or two. Brooks is much maligned but he has an impressive career resume that includes a nearly .500 career record for one of NFL's worst franchises and a career QB rating of 80 w/ 120 TD's, 84 interceptions & over 19k yards passing. This move reduces Drew Brees' value slightly since he loses the comfort of Antonio Gates & LT, it significantly improves Phillip Rivers value since he's the undisputed starter in SD now and it significantly reduces the value of Aaron Brooks since he'll be released.
• Detroit Lions signed FA QB Jon Kitna to a reported 4 year deal that includes a signing bonus between $3 million & $4 million. This puts the pressure on Joey Harrington and sets up an interesting training camp battle. It also makes the Cincinnati Bengals in the market looking for a quality veteran backup, maybe Gus Frerotte would be a good fit here. This is not nearly as significant as the first two moves but it does improve the value of Jon Kitna since he moves into a position where one can reasonably expect him to start at least a few games in '06 (Harrington hasn't been able to start an entire season's games yet).

What's left in the QB market?

• Patrick Ramsey - he's available in a trade and will be dealt in the next day or two, likely to the NY Jets who want to bring in protection against another Chad Pennington injury.


• Aaron Brooks - he is the most productive player on the market but is maligned due to a perception that he's not a winner.


• Kerry Collins - rumors are that he'll end up in Baltimore to battle Kyle Boller but he has yet to visit and the Raiders could resign him.


• Gus Frerotte - he'll be a backup in Cincinnati or Minnesota, though don't rule out the NY Jets either.

It will be an interesting few weeks as Free Agency continues on and the NFL draft approaches but few days will be as fast paced or meaningful for the QB position than this. It's getting me excited for the upcoming season.