Top Projected Fantasy Football Rookies 2014

Here’s my second version, a more informed take, of this year’s top PAFFL fantasy football rookie picks.  As I wrote about earlier, the NFL evolution has changed the value of rookies.  

1. QB Johnny Manziel ($55) - South Whore Jibbers - There’s no more upside in this year’s rookie class.  Advanced metrics say he’s likely a star and there’s something “special” about his composure. No situation is too big for him, he’s a star.  Yes he may party and he’s unorthodox but some players just have “it”.  Cleveland may not be a popular landing spot but they have a strong offensive line and quality offensive weapons, and most importantly an offensive coordinator (Kyle Shannahan) who has developed offenses for similar style quarterbacks (most recently RG3).  
2. QB Teddy Bridgewater ($55) - Palo Alto Firefighters (via BINGO) - Bridgewater is my favorite of the rookie quarterbacks, he has a lot of what I love about Manziel w/o any of the hoopla bs.  He’s the most pro ready drop back QB in this class, and while he’s not the runner/playmaker of Manziel, he’s a deadly accurate thrower who put an average college program on his back and led them to BCS victory.  He’s played hurt and he’s a quiet leader.  He falls to #4 here b/c he doesn’t have the upside of Manziel nor the security of being a top 5 pick like Bortles, but if I had to hang my hat on one of these three, I’d go with Teddy ballgame.  
3. RB Bishop Sankey ($55) - Team Kitty (via Palo Alto Firefighters) - Sankey is one of the better two way running backs in this class and he landed in easily the best situation for immediate playing time and traditional offensive philosophies in Tenn.  Will he get 300 touches? Highly doubtful but he’s the safest to get 200 and has enough natural talent to be a RB2 in ’14 with upside.  
4. QB Blake Bortles ($55) - Palo Alto Firefighters (via Team Kitty) - Bortles maybe the least sexy of the top 5 or 6 picks but don’t forget he was the #3 overall pick, goes to a team that promises to let him “learn” (aka sit for a year to develop) and just invested multiple high picks at WR.  He is the most pro projectable in terms of height, size, athletic ability and leadership.  Assuming he gets time to sit/learn I think he’s the safest rookie QB to develop into a starter.  
5. QB Derek Carr ($45/topped) - BINGO (via Blak Jesus) - this is slightly early for Carr but there is a much stronger need by BINGO for a QB than another RB, and Carr’s underrated.  He’s been highly productive, demonstrates NFL size/height, arm strength and most importantly, he’s grown up around the NFL game (via his brother David) so he’s more prepared and understanding of what it takes to be successful than most.  Was he a product of the Fresno State system (and talent around him)? Maybe a little but when you watch the tape he has all the traits you look for in a starting QB and he’s going to a team that will let him sit/learn for a year but are definitely looking at him as their QB of the future.  Thus he’s going to be their starter in ’15 (if not earlier) and to get that player at sub $55 now is a good move.  
6. RB Carlos Hyde ($45/topped) - Cooking Monkeys (via Los Frijoles Pintos) - here’s where the quarterback run ends.  LFP desperately will hope Hyde goes earlier leaving Carr or one of the other QB’s to fall to him but it won’t happen.  Hyde could easily fall from here even given that at best he’s not fantasy relevant until ’15 (barring a major Gore injury) and will cost $55 (since in the open auction teams will bid him up).  Hyde is talented as a pile mover and pass protector but he’s not shown much ability in the passing game.  That said the 49’ers are one of the few successful NFL teams that still run a 1970’s style ground control offensive game, and if Hyde ascends to the starting role (over KHunter & MLattimore) in ’15, then he could be worth the investment. 
7. RB Tre Mason ($35/topped) - Salem Beavercats - This is where literally any of the next seven selections could go but based on projected near & long term value here are my next seven. Mason is a pile driving, willful runner who showed so much heart as the soul of the NCAA runner up Auburn football team this past year.  As the son of one of the De La Soul members, Mason showed incredible north-south improvisational skills this past year and is setup to get immediate playing time in a committee with last year’s rookie surprise, Zac Stacy.  If Stacy doesn’t take the next step, and I’m not a believer he will, then 150 touches is floor, and 200+ touches is possible in one of those last holdout traditional offenses in St. Louis where their head coach wants to control the time of possession and mask a mediocre passing attack. That makes him a likely RB3 with RB2+ upside.  
8. RB Jeremy Hill ($25/topped) - Cooking Monkeys - Hill is a guy I’m having trouble projecting b/c Bernard looks so good in ’13 and this backfield is suddenly crowded.  However Cincy wouldn’t have used a 2nd round pick on Hill if it wasn’t planning to use him in a share situation with last year’s 2nd round pick, Bernard.  The law firm, BJGE, plays with heart but he lacks top end talent, and Hill looks like a lock for 160 touches and goal line duty, enough to be a likely RB3 out of the gate.  I don’t love the film on him, he seems erratic, but I’m just a fantasy football geek, and the Bengals hope to more heavily rely on the run this year.   So 750 yards and 8+ td’s are the projection, enough to be a RB3 out of the gate and there’s plenty of upside in what could evolve into a top 3 offense this year.   
9. RB Devonta Freeman ($30/topped) - Delta Mad Dawgs - Freeman is a complete projection both in terms of his limited college playing time as well as his situation in Atlanta.  The Falcons literally have little in front of Freeman.  Stephen Jackson is on his last legs (he looked done last year), Jacquizz Rodgers is a complementary guy at best and that’s it.  Thus it’s conceivable Freeman is this year Alfred Morris type who rattles off 1200+ total yards and 8+ TD’s out of nowhere.  However that’s a major projection so it’s hard for me to say one way or another but he’s well inline to get 100+ touches with upside to be the featured back, and that’s good enough for Flex value as the floor. 
10. RB Andre Williams ($25/topped) - Fuego - One of the more under the radar major college running stars of recent history; Williams went over 2k yards last year, was drafted by one of the higher profile NFL franchises who is in need of production out of their backfield, and yet most fantasy pundits are skimming over him.  But the Giants are serious about Andre Williams, saying he was a “2nd round” pick on their board and saying he not only looked good at minicamp but they’re counting on him being part of their backfield “committee”.  HIs primary competition for touches is veteran journeyman Rashard Jennings, so his potential touches in a quality offense could exceed 100 and if he’s as the Giants coaches advertised, he could be a big surprise as RB3 or better.  
11. RB Terrance West ($25/topped) - Naughty Thoughts - West comes from sub divisional college football but he was a beast at that level.  Some scouts compare him to Joique Bell (same conference/level) but West was a superior performer and athlete, and he comes to the Browns who are looking to run a balanced attack, behind a top 5 offensive line and with only an injury prone veteran who signed a short term deal (Ben Tate) and a fellow undrafted rookie to compete with.  Watching film he looks like a beast and behind this offensive line, anybody can be productive in this offense.  So the upside alone is worth the risk because he’s well positioned to get 5+ touches a game but he could be inline for 10-15, making him an RB3 with upside.  
12. RB Lache Seastrunk ($35/topped) - Palo Alto Short Bus - This is getting into the area where it’s more projecting need/value/personal fit and focusing more on pure talent/upside than situation. Seastrunk has arguably second highest ceiling rookie behind only Manziel but he has a much lower floor.  If you watch Seastrunk’s highlight reel you’d assume he was a heisman finalist and a top 5 pick, the guy is a Barry Sanders type.  In fact he looks and plays an awful like LeSean McCoy.  The fact Washington drafted him with a new head coach that likes versatile, matchup problem running backs means he landed in a nearly ideal location.  Generic football watchers will say he’s a clear backup behind Alfred Morris but those folks aren’t looking at the talent and explosiveness of Seastrunk and are assuming past performance & play calling will dictate future performance.  Morris isn’t going away but I’d bet he gets 25% less touches this year than his career average and Seastrunk is setup to get most of those touches and more. 
13. WR Sammy Watkins ($30/topped) - Strongfighters - Watkins could go earlier, he’s simply that good and the Bills are intent on making him their featured receiver (any doubt was erased when they dealt their current #1 Stevie Johnson for a 4th rounder to SF).  If the Bills had an established QB, I’d have Watkins higher, but I believe EJ Manuel can step up and Watkins will help him.  So he’s a likely 800 yard 7 TD guy as a rookie with lots of upside in year two & beyond, so he’s a WR3 to start with WR1 upside in year 2.   
14. QB Jimmy Garoppolo ($20/topped) - Salem Beavercats (via Team Engel) - Possibly the most intriguing prospect of the draft is the Patriots 2nd round selection of QB Garoppolo.  Based on Bill Belicheck’s post draft comments, it’s clear Ryan Mallett isn’t the future and they like the upside opportunity of teaching/coaching Garoppolo for the next 2 to 3 years. Past history shows that teams that develop a player for a couple years to take over from a generational stud franchise quarterback have more success than those that plug in a guy w/o the maturation process.  So the odds are higher here but it’s the time/investment required that will be tough.  For what it’s worth the film shows a quick release, accurate, pocket passer with some mobility.
15. RB DeAnthony Thomas ($15/topped) - LA Isotopes - Thomas disappointed at the combine and all star games, but landed in a great spot in KC under Andy Reid.  KC will plug him into the Dexter McCluster role getting bubble screens and touches behind fragile Jamaal Charles.  His immediate upside is limited playing behind Charles and in an avg. offense but his quickness and versatility could get him enough touches to be immediately fantasy relevant.  Expect him to get a handful of touches (mostly receptions) each week and have spot flex duty value immediately.  
16. QB Tom Savage ($20/topped) - Team Kitty - There’s a mismatch here with the fantasy team (TK rarely if ever goes for development players) however Savage is a good risk.  The only QB ahead of him is Ryan Fitzpatrick, their new HC Bill O’Brien’s strength is developing QB’s and Houston’s roster is very strong across the board, so they’ll be competitive this year and don’t need a QB to lead them (and they’ll be drafting in the bottom half of next year’s 1st round, reducing the chances they’ll be tempted to select a franchise QB next year.  That said this is a toss up selection but there’s too much upside to not use it on him vs. a 1st round selection WR or a mid round RB stuck as a clear backup (such as Minn. RB J. McKinnon).