Best PAFFL Contracts....

I use to write a version of the best paffl contracts series every year, in fact I'd do it every 4 or so weeks back in the days before I had an infant, responsibilities and could spend ALL my time thinking about sports, and in particular fantasy football.  Nowadays I get to watch the games on Sundays but that's the end of it, I'm all in during the week.

However this year I'm fortunate to have sometime off so to speak, call it short term retirement, I'm working out between 1 to 2 hours a day and catching up on stuff that I've neglected the past few years as my family has grown.  Which brings me to this traditional that needs some updating.  Without further ado…

To provide context, this is obviously my personal opinion, the lens I'm using is one that considers positional importance vs. production vs. contract price (and length).  What I eventually will do in the future (aka not this year) is input prior years performance (actual paffl points produced) vs. salary and expected value, so I can spit out football outsiders style specific value differentials for all players.  For this year I'm doing it less scientifically but with that formula in mind.  Also note that I'm NOT including prospects, only players who have already proven (or at least are starting and have shown the ability) their NFL value.

 

QB's

• Russell Wilson ($40, '14) - Naughty Thoughts - look at this guys production as a rookie, he's only going to get better and will enter '13 with a $100+ overall value; but he's locked into a $65 (and less) annual contract for the next 5 years; meaning he'll save (or have incremental value) of approx. $180. 
• Cam Newton ($55, '13) - BeaverCats - Newtown's had consecutive top 4 fantasy QB production seasons with a mediocre supporting cast.  He's already a $130+ value but locked into a $80 (and less) annual contract for the next 4 years; meaning an overall value of $230 over the next 4 years. 
• Robert Griffin III ($55, '14) - Strongfighters - Irrespective of the end of season injury, RG3 is legit and will be a productive fantasy producer, likely top 10, for the foreseeable future.  That makes him a Newton like value for the next 5 years; and overall value of $260ish over that time. 
• Colin Kaepernick ($51, '14) - Short Bus - This is mostly on the projected value he'll have in Jim Harbaugh's offense in future years; he has the look of a top 10 player and will be at $76 (max) in annual cost for the next 5 years.  I'd peg his '13 value at $90, over the next 5 years that's a savings of $120 (with lots of upside).  
• Carson Palmer ($40, '13) - BeaverCats - Palmer is the oldest on this list but he's still only 33 and consistently is a top 15 fantasy QB producer; he's not in the same class value wise as Wilson, Newton, RGIII or Luck's b/c his upside is capped but he's a $100 valued player locked into a sub $65 contract for the next 4 years; with overall value of $175 during that timeframe. 
• Ryan Tannehill ($50, '14) - Jack Trippers - Like Kappie, this is more of a projection for '13 but when given time he has the overall skill set to be a top 10 type QB and will have strong value heading into '13 regardless with a contract that's at least $30 cheaper than value and the potential to be 2x that, and he's locked up for the next 5+ years; looking at $150 value. 
• Andy Dalton ($55, '13) - Strongfighters - Dalton has probably the least amount of talent of any of the quarterbacks on this list but he's savvy and has the second best receiver in the NFL to throw to (AJ Green), which means he'll continue to be a great value fantasy production wise for the next 4 years.  I'd peg his '13 value at $100, meaning he's a $105 value over that timeframe. 
• Andrew Luck ($55, '15) - BeaverCats - Luck lived up to every expectation and then some, he finished in the top 10 as a rookie while having one of the worst supporting casts in the NFL (don't forget Indy won only 2 games in '11); he's the prototype franchise QB and already is a $130+ value type player locked into 6 more years at $80 (and less). His overall contractual value is potentially the highest on this list @ $300+

Others: Josh Freeman ($66, '14), Matthew Stafford ($80, '15), Joe Flacco ($70, '14) among others are worthy of consideration but all have too few years and/or gap in cost vs. actual value.  

RB's

• Alfred Morris ($2, '14) - Short Bus - Here's the secret to PAFFL success, finding $80 to $100 values for sub $10; Morris put up a top 5 RB season and will enter '13 worth approx. $100, but will cost $2, and he's locked in for 5 more years.  Odds are against him maintaining that value for all five years but for at least the time being this is the best contract in the paffl. 
• Marshawn Lynch ($55, '15) - Short Bus - Lynch would be higher if this was '12 but his contract is jumping closer to the true value of his production.  He's still a $90 to $100 player, so there remains solid positive differential in value over the next three years.  
• C.J. Spiller ($40, '14) - Fuego - Likely the surprise of the group b/c Spiller is still thought of by some as a quasi bust after being taken in the top 10 of the draft; Spiller put up a remarkable year when you look at total yards and TD's, and firmly will enter '13 as an ascending value and nearly $100 player.  With a contract that will run for the next 5 years at $65 or less, he's one of the better values at RB in the paffl. 
• DeMarco Murray ($24, '14) - Naughty Thoughts - Murray appeared primed to break out this year after a great rookie campaign but injuries held him back.  Thus this is a projection on what he should do (and will be projected to be by professional fantasy pundits heading into '13), which is $80+ value production; since he's under contract for the next 5 years at under valued production he's firmly on this list. 
• Stevan Ridley ($3, '13) - BeaverCats - Ridley became a top 10 producer in '12 and was a featured runner for a dominant Pats offense, some projections next year may knock him down some but given the difference in cost (vs. value) for '13 (and the next 4 years), he makes this list. 
• Vick Ballard ($15, '14) - East Bay Funk - The Colts offense rebounded in '12 after a disastrous '11 and Ballard played a bigger than expected role in that as a rookie, demonstrating the skills to gain the tough yards and keep defenses honest for fellow rookie QB Luck.  His production wasn't anything special but he'll enter '13 with an expected value close to $60 and a salary $45 south of that.  It's an open question whether he'll maintain the positive value differential in the years ahead but he's deserving of a spot on this list right now. 
• Doug Martin ($55, '14) - Los Frijoles Pintos - The late 1st rounder was a surprise selection but fantasy leaguers knew he had the potential to be a difference maker, and he sure was, finishing the year as a top 3 fantasy RB.  Given his versatility (running & receiving), he has the look of a $100+ value for years to come and is locked up at $80 (or less) for the next 5 years, making him a solid value.  
• Arian Foster ($80, '15) - East Bay Funk - I debated this one b/c while Foster is the most valuable fantasy RB, he'll already be at a steep price, thus his value differential is small but regardless of that I decided to include him b/c he's as much a sure thing at RB over the next 3 years as anybody, thus he's a $120ish value at $80, making him a $40 value each year.  That was enough to win me over. 
• Jamaal Charles ($55, '14) - Isotopes - Similar to the Foster debate, Charles is already expensive and only locked up for two years but ultimately decided to include him b/c he has approximately a $50 value per season, making his total $100 over the next two seasons, enough for me to pull the trigger on one of the most dynamic players in the NFL.

 Others: Adrian Peterson ($80, '13), Bryce Brown ($7, '14), Reggie Bush ($26, '13), Darryl Richardson ($1, '14), LeSean McCoy ($73, '14), Ray Rice ($61, '13), Ben Tate ($16, '14), Knowshon Moreno ($8, '14), Trent Richardson ($55, '14) among others are worthy of consideration but all have too few years, lack of production and/or gap in cost vs. actual value. 

WR's

• Victor Cruz ($1, '13) - Strongfighters - the Giants find has been the Strongs one as well, leading their team to back to back successful years.  He's a $70 value so for one year is a great deal and likely will be valuable for the next four years, making this approx. a $100 value during that time. 
• AJ Green ($34, '13) - Strongfighters - the second most valuable fantasy receiver in the NFL, he's a $75+ value thus over the next four years he'll return approximately $100 in value. 
• Torrey Smith ($5, '13) - Fuego - the second year man exploded this year as a top 20 guy and will enter '13 as a $60 type value, over the next 4 years that'll make him approximately $70 value but with plenty of upside to that number. 
• Randal Cobb ($10, '14) - Naughty Thoughts - maybe the highest value on this list, Cobb looks like a difference maker who could be primed for a top 5 type season in '13 (sans FA Greg Jennings in GB).  At the very least he'll be a $60ish value next year and the years to come making him a $70ish value over the next 4 years. 
• Eric Decker ($5, '13) - Short Bus - this is a result of Peyton Manning coming to Denver, he instantly made Decker & D. Thomas stud fantasy receivers; Decker will enter '13 as a $65 value, thus he's inline for a 4 years value differential of approx. $90. 
• T.Y. Hilton ($2, '15) - South Whore - Indy's offense as a whole is on the upswing, Hilton was a surprise performer who put up fantasy relevant numbers this year and figures to enter '13 as approx. a $35 value, making him a $33/year value, which over the next three years min. is a $100 value.

 

Others: Chris Givens ($2, '15), Josh Gordon ($10, '15), Justin Blackmon ($21, '15), Denarius Moore ($2, '14), Brian Hartline ($2, '14), Julio Jones ($40, '14), Golden Tate ($4, '14) among others are worthy of consideration but all have too few years, lack of production and/or gap in cost vs. actual value.

TE's

• Jimmy Graham ($5, '13) - Fuego - Drew Brees' true go to receiver is a $80+ value b/c his production is like a top 5 receiver and he's consistent; meaning he's a $75ish value next year but also stands to be a good value for the life of his contract (4 years).  
• Rob Gronkowski ($5, '13) - East Bay Funk - It's splitting hairs between him & Graham but I'd go with the NOLA player as #1 simply b/c he's an undisputed option vs. the Pats who like to spread the ball around.  Regardless the value equation above holds here too.  

Others: Kyle Rudolph ($4, '13) among others are worthy of consideration but he has too few years, lack of production and/or gap in cost vs. actual value.

So here's my list, please I love constructive feedback, so don't hesitate to bring it on!

Comments

[PASB]

Where is my Kirk Cousins???