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    « Matt Leinart for Sidney Rice + 14th pick | Main | Maurice Jones-Drew calls "Arian Foster his sleeper for 2010" »

    Comments

    todd

    nice write up. I still think the cleveland RB goes for 55 in the 6th spot.

    NT

    Agreed, good update, however the top rookie TEs look like they were unintentionally left off the list. Gresham, Gronkowski, Dixon, etc. They all play for teams with legit QBs and strong offenses - I could see a couple of those guys contributing immediately. PS Strongfighters own the #8 pick.

    EBF

    love the predictions. i can guarantee there will be at least one surprise!

    also i agree with todd that hardesty will most likely go in the top 6

    Beavercats

    Ok, I made the updates - given that there are some folks thinking Hardesty will go higher, I put him at #6. That said I think Gerhart goes at 6 and Hardesty falls to #7 or #8 at best, which puts the best long-term values (in terms of productions / PAFFL salary) into the 9-11 spots (Tebow, McCluster, Clausen & McCoy).

    todd

    You don't think the QBs expected to come out next year (locker, luck, etc -- there are like 7 of them) are much much better than Tebow, Clausen, and McCoy?

    I feel a bit underwhelmed by this rookie class.

    Beavercats

    The reports I've read from sources I trust seem to think this year's class is very strong in the 2nd to 7th round areas, and many skill position guys fell b/c of a lack of need and/or depth in the overall draft class. An example of this was the number of RB's at the combine who ran a sub 4.5 40 this year (12) vs. last year (3). Think about this for a second, Knowshon Moreno couldn't break 4.5 in the 40 (he was closer to 4.6) and yet was a 1st round pick b/c a a strong need by Denver. In contrast this year you had guys in the sub 4.4 range falling to the end of round 1 (Jahvid Best).

    As for the QB's, I think that is so much about system & opportunity. I can say with certainty that Colt McCoy and Tim Tebow enter the NFL with more experience/success at the college level and to situations that set them up to be as successful long-term as possible, than Locker, Mallett or Luck will. History has shown that a QB asked to play a lot early on has a much lower success rate, regardless of physical talent.

    In short, I think this year's top 16 rookies don't match '08, but I think they'll be WAY better than '09 which could go down as one of the worst rookie (skill position) classes in recent NFL history.

    NT

    Baring injury or total meldown by the current starting QBs, Tebow, McCoy, Clausen, Skelton and Webb (with Favre's annoucement) are almost sure to be backups in 2010. That said, there is a high probability that at least 3 of those guys will enter next year as starters. A full year to be an apprentice will ultimately increase the odds that they will succeed. In short, all these guys are great DS candidates in my opinion, and Bradford is obviously a rare tallent who will start day one. Time will tell, but in a couple years, I wouldn't be surprised if this turns out to be a pretty solid draft year for QBs.

    EBF

    Josh, will you name your trusted sources, Please!!

    Beavercats

    Trusted Sources = watching the NFL combine coverage (literally end to end); Matt Mayock (sp?) and a few other scout like pundits. I certainly read the Mel Kiper coverage but find him to be a blowhard a bit.

    I generally avoid the fantasy mag previews of rookies since most (if not all) appear to throw darts at a board on everybody outside the first 2 rounds, and practice textbook herd mentality for the early draft picks.

    As history has shown, the chance for success of a rookie QB or RB is nearly the same whether they are drafted in the 1st or 5th round, assuming both get the same opportunities (which isn't always the case).

    NT

    Agree with your judgement on Kiper - blowhard and self-promoter. I feel the same about Mayock, however I feel that he is even less respected by his peers and people in the industry. He looks good on TV and has an assertive/authoritative delivery and people buy his sh*t and eat it up. We'd all probably benefit from watching the combine on mute and forming our own conclusions.

    Beavercats

    I like Mayock's opinions on QB's, he clearly spent a lot of his scouting career (and yes he was an NFL QB and professional scout before the TV career) focused on the QB position. His opinions typically seem to be related to functional stuff vs. Mel Kiper who sticks to the size/speed/arm strength/hot girlfriend analogies with all prospects.

    Beavercats

    BTW - I'm surprised we haven't seen more wheeling / dealing this week. Especially around rookie picks. There are 10 legitimate rookies to secure, and 5 RB's who are entering likely PAFFL fantasy starting roles (Best, Matthews, Spiller, Tate & Hardesty w/ McCluster as an honorable mention) and a lot more teams in need of starting RB's than QB's but yet very little momentum on this front. What gives?

    NT

    The internet has porn ... so people have been sidetracked.

    RonJeremy

    FFC has been trying...seems teams are less apt to add salary right now, even more so than years past. Even teams with clear RB needs are being extremely picky. Hopefully the auction will change all that once the beer begins to flow!

    Beavercats

    I think there are going to be some steals this year as teams get tunnel vision on specific players. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out...needless to say I'm excited!

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