Top Rookies for '09

It's a quick look as the NFL Draft's first day starts to wind down on who the top fantasy rookies will be, specifically for the PAFFL (where long-term success is just as important as short term).  I'll update this as the 3rd round is completed but at this point here are the top guys based on talent & situation. 

1. RB Knowshon Moreno - Denver (#12 overall) - Moreno is going to a team with offensive talent and a clear need for a featured runner.  He's not as obvious a top fantasy rookie as other years because the NE system that Josh McDaniels is implementing will likely rotate guys, but Moreno has the talent to be a perennial 1,500 total yard guy who clocks in 8 to 12 TD's a year.  He will be a $55 in the PAFFL in '09 and has the look of a solid fantasy RB2.
2. RB Chris "Beanie" Wells - Arizona (#31 overall) - Some scouts like Wells more than Moreno but the stats and versatility say otherwise.  Too many Big Ten backs are busts in the pros and Wells has lacked durability but he is talented and goes to a team in desperate need of a featured back to pair with a great passing attack.  He'll be $55 in the PAFFL and has a potential to be a perennial 1000 yard guy w/ 10+ TD's, which will be good for fantasy RB2 status.  
3. QB Matthew Stafford - Detroit (#1 overall) - Stafford almost certainly won't start the season behind center as the Lions allow Daunte Culpepper to connect with their superstar WR Calvin Johnson.  But with the largest guaranteed contract in NFL history, Stafford will be starting by no later than '10 and has the potential to be a fantasy stud throwing to CJ for years to come.  He'll be $55 and will be a fantasy QB2 type guy come '10. 
4. QB Mark Sanchez - NY Jets (#5 overall) - Sanchez is the accurate, mobile, fiery competitor type of drop back quarterback that NFL teams, especially ones that run the west coast style of offense, salivate over.  He's going to a great team with OC Brian Schottenheimer calling the shots, he likely won't see much of the field in '09 while the Jets let Kellen Clemens prove himself one last time but you can guarantee he's being penciled in as the starter in '09.  He'll fall somewhere between $40-$55 in the PAFFL and looks like a lock to be a fantasy QB2 in '10.
5. RB Donald Brown - Indy Colts (#27 overall) - This maybe one of the bigger surprises of the 1st round, as Indy has a strong starter in Joseph Addai as their starter but clearly they felt he was the best player on the board.  Brown played his college ball at UCONN so he's not as well known but he's a player, he put up big numbers (and put UCONN on the college football map) over the past two years and backed that up with strong combine numbers.  He will be a backup to start out but he's talented (as a runner & receiver) so this will take fantasy value away from Addai and limit Brown's near term value, but over the next four or five years, he could develop into a star in Indy's dynamic offense.  Brown will go for somewhere around $35-$40, and be a solid fantasy RB3 (thanks to the strong Indy offense). 
6. QB Josh Freeman - Tamba Bay Bucs (#19) - Freeman played a bit under the radar at Kansas State but the new TB head coach, Raheem Morris, was a coach there and knows Freeman well, so this is a good pick.  He needs time to develop so expect the Bucs to use Luke McCown or Byron Leftwich as the starter in '09 and possibly '10, but Freeman immediately becomes the QB of the future.  This likely means last year's 5th rounder, Josh Johnson, will be on the trade block this summer.  Freeman will be $25-$45 and will be a fantasy QB2 at times in '10. 
7. RB LeSean McCoy - Philadelphia Eagles (#53) - McCoy was projected to be a first round pick following the season but after disappointing combine numbers, his value dropped.  However landing in Philly he found a great home, as Andy Reid loves receiving threats out of the backfield and he'll learn from a similar type of talent in Brian Westbrook, who turned 30 last year.  McCoy will immediately be a change of pace / backup, and in Philly's offense could be a fantasy RB4 this year with the potential to be a RB2 in '10 & beyond.  McCoy will be $25-$40, ala Ray Rice in last year's rookie class. 
8. WR Michael Crabtree - SF 49'ers (#10) - Crabtree is a beast, arguably the best overall player in the draft, who lands with a team in desperate need of playmakers, especially at WR.  This is a great pick for the 49'ers but its not a great landing spot for fantasy leaguers looking to take advantage of Crabtree's talent.  The 49'ers are going to be a run focused team and their quarterback spot is in flux, so even best case scenarios have Crabtree as no better than a fantasy reserve this year with and opportunity to be a WR3 in '10.  B/c he's a 49'er, he'll be overpriced at between $25-$40 in the PAFFL. 

Any disagreements or thoughts?

Comments

[todd2006]

Nice write-up. I agree with a lot of the points.

I think you're underestimating what these rookies will go for. I think both top 2 QBs will be held over at $55. I think Denver's, Arizona's, and possibly Indy's RBs will all be $55. There's a chance that someone will $55 Westbrook's 2010 replacement as well. I wouldn't be surprised, not saying that I would.

My co-owner wants to take Sanchez with the 2 pick because "he's pretty good looking." Of course, she wanted me to take a linebacker too because he was "nice looking" as well. I didn't explain that we're postponing the IDP issue.

[ebf]

patience will be needed for this years rookie class. at this point there is no obvious immediate impact player.
will paffl owners be looking to trade out of the top 5?

[ebf]

crabtree over d.hazardous-bey?????

[todd2006]

I think you have a few solid players... but yeah, many of them will have to be DS'ed. Add the Jets rookie RB to this list as well. He will be solid. Some of these WRs might surprised as well.

[Beavercats]

I think this class is just as deep as most years but it certainly lacks the immediate impact players and is stronger at WR / TE and weakest at QB. The RB class is actually not bad but many of the gems will come in rounds 4-7.

As for an immediate stud, I think there is one clear guy and that's Knowshon Moreno, b/c he's as talented & versatile as anybody and he landed in a great spot too. After him the next 5 picks (in my opinion) could go just about any direction.

[tc]

please go back to doing what you do best, changing dirty diapers. In fact print this sheet and use it to clean off Wyatt, it will at lest serve a purpose.
1st Stafford 55
2nd Sanchez 55
3rd Wells 55
4th Freeman 55
5th Moreno 35-40
6th Crabtree 20-25