RB Share Situations - New Blood from the 2008 NFL Draft

The NFL draft always brings some surprises but one guarantee you can always count on is new blood, an infusion of 250+ players who are young, healthy and hungry to make it in the NFL.  In a professional sport that carries a career expectancy of approximately 3.2 years for a drafted player, many joke that NFL stands for 'Not For Long'.  For fantasy leaguers, particularly dynasty league participants (where you keep players for longer than a single year), the NFL draft represents new blood, players who shift current player's values and new opportunities for fantasy success.  One trend that people will start talking about a lot more, and expect to see this all over the 2008 fantasy football guides that get published in June, is the NFL shift to Two Back systems where one running back maybe gets a majority of the carries between the 20's and then another one comes in for the goal line work, short yardage or third down opportunities.  The NY Giants won the super bowl with this strategy, and New England has employed it during their reign the past eight years to great success. So while having competent backups has always been the goal, the NFL is moving towards a trend of literally have two guys who could be considered the starter.  For fantasy this means fewer true 'featured backs' and more ambiguity as to who is the 'right' guy to start week to week.

Here are some examples of new 2-back systems as a result of the NFL draft. 

Oakland -
Darren McFadden joins Justin Fargas & LaMont Jordan (not to mention Michael Bush).  Given that the team spent the #4 overall pick on McFadden and none of the incumbents possess his talent, DMC should be more of a true featured guy, likely a #2, but he'll certainly share time with the above guys.  Fargas goes from a potential #2 guy to a weak #3 or likely more of a fantasy reserve.

Detroit -
They will rotate Tatum Bell and Kevin Smith (3rd round pick) in their backfield in an offense that will re-focus on the run in '08.  Likely neither will be a fantasy starter but both will have their moments as #3 types.   

Carolina -
Jonathan Stewart (1st round) will be in the mix, and he could even be the featured guy.  But its hard to imagine Carolina not using DeAngelo Williams in at least a change of pace / 3rd down role, the former 1st round pick is a home run hitter that Stewart isn't.  I suspect HC John Fox now sees this as a Stephen Davis (Stewart) and DeShaun Foster (Williams) type of split which took them to the Super Bowl in '03.   Stewart will be a #3 fantasy back (with potential to be a #2) and Williams will be no better than a #3. 

Pittsburgh -
One of the bigger surprises in the 1st round, even though Pittsburgh lost two starting offensive lineman this off-season and have the two time ('06 & '07) pro bowler Willie Parker on their roster, they went with their highest draft value and selected Rashard Mendenhall.  Mendenhall will serve as the backup to Parker but he'll get considerably playing time, dropping Parker from a #1 fantasy back to a #2.

Dallas -
Nothing new here, they let Julius Jones go (to be in a share situation in Seattle) and brought in Felix Jones to play Jones' role.  Marion Barber will be the starter and have an uptick in production this year but Jones will get plenty of carries and opportunities.  Barber is a solid #2 fantasy back with Jones as a weak #3.

Houston -
Steve Slaton is a one cut runner going to a zone blocking, one cut system.  He'll get carries between the 20's with Ahman Green & Chris Brown getting more of the work load overall.  This is one of those wide open situations though where Slaton could surprise folks.

Tennessee -
Drafting Chris Johnson in the 1st round this year demonstrates that the Titans aren't completely sold on LenDale White and/or Chris Henry.  It also says that Johnson will be used as a wide receiver at times as well.  But no matter how you slice it, LenDale White and Chris Johnson's respective fantasy values are limited some by the fact neither will receive enough carries to lead the league in anything.  That said both project to be solid #3 fantasy backs in an offense that will focus on running & short passes, both should exceed 1000+ total yards and 5 to 10 TD's (with White having slightly more value at this point).

So to go along with the teams who have already adopted two back systems (NY Giants, Seattle, Denver, Jacksonville, Miami, New Orleans, Atlanta, Minnesota, Green Bay Packers, New York Jets & Tampa Bay) the NFL now has more than 50% of its teams that employ this type of running attack philosophy.  Which will make it harder for fantasy leaguers to select the obvious starters in each situation. 

This trend also makes those guys who are clear cut starters such as LaDanian Tomlinson, Edgerrin James, Frank Gore, Joseph Addai, Stephen Jackson, Larry Johnson, Brian Westbrook, MarShawn Lynch, Clinton Portis, Jamal Lewis and Willis McGahee that much more valuable.