2008 PAFFL Rookie Pick Projections (1st Draft)

       

The 2008 NFL draft brought fantasy football a plethora of fresh talent. Five first round selections at RB, two QB’s and plenty of solid 2nd & 3rd rounders as well.  The one troubling development though is the two-back system becoming pervasive in the the copycat NFL. Possibly not a single RB selected this year will be a true featured back (sans McFadden & Stewart)  McFadden is a likely #2 fantasy back, no team will select a player that high with that type of talent w/o a plan to feature him, and maybe Jonathan Stewart in Carolina where HC John Fox likes a bruising back to wear down defenses.  But the next eight backs off the board (Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, Kevin Jones, Jamaal Charles & Steve Slaton) will be in share situations at best.  In fact the only one in that group with an opportunity to start is Matt Forte in Chicago where all he needs to do is beat out bonafide bust Cedric Benson.

 

Here is my initial 2008 PAFFL Rookie Pick Projections

1. OAK RB Darren McFadden ($55) - Beavercats (via Jack Trippers)

McFadden will be featured but he could lose goal-line carries to vet Justin Fargas and/or 2nd year man Michael Bush. He’ll be a quality #2 fantasy RB in ’08 with potential to be a good #1 as he'll touch the ball at least 250 times and is likely to amass at least 1200 total yards and 6 to 8 TD's in an offense that will focus on getting him the ball in space.   

 

2. CAR RB Jonathan Stewart ($55) - Blak Jesus

Stewart should be the featured guy in Carolina, he may not start, but he’ll be the banger that HC John Fox wants, ala Stephen Davis. As long as Jake Delhomme returns and the offensive line jells, Stewart could easily be this year's offensive rookie of the year as he should get 250+ carries and 10+ TD's in an offense that force feeds big backs near the goal line.  Stewart projects to be a #2 fantasy back in ’08 with the potential to be a #1 if the offensive line improves from '07.   

 

3. ATL QB Matt Ryan ($55) - IMT 

Atlanta likely will let Ryan learn early on but it wouldn’t be surprising to see the team hand the reins to him in early ’08 while they rely on the running game.  He's a very hard working, good touch base leader type QB who is the future guy for the Falcons. For ’08 he’s more of developmental guy who will be the unquestioned starter in ’09.

 

4. BAL QB Joe Flacco ($50) -  LA Isotopes

Flacco is an even more of a developmental prospect than Ryan but he has a higher upside. He’s been compared to Ben Roethlisberger and has that type of potential (they played in the same college conference). He likely won’t play much in ’08 but the Ravens are aiming for him to takeover in ’09 for a long time. This selection shores up the Baltimore QB spot for the ‘topes, a team that will employ the downfield vertical passing but run centric offensive attack of the Cam Cameron San Diego Chargers.

 

5. PIT RB Rashard Mendenhall ($50) - Los Frijoles Pintos

Mendenhall looked great this past season ripping apart the Big Ten. He reminds me of a faster Marion Barber but with ’06/’07 Pro Bowler Willie Parker as the starter, Mendenhall will be splitting carries at best. This is reminiscent of the Seahawks selecting Shaun Alexander in 2000 while they still had Ricky Watters in his pro bowl prime.  Expect Mendenhall to return kicks and be the change of pace guy in '08 and likely enter '09 in a 50/50 share situation before taking over the full-time role in '10.  For this year, he's at best a fantasy #3 back.   

 

6. DAL RB Felix Jones ($45) - Firkin Crawlers

Jones is a gamebreaker who will serve as a game of pace to Marion Barber. It’s possible Jones ends up getting more total yards than Barber however he won’t score nearly as many TD’s. So while Barber is a strong #2, Jones is likely no better than a #3 in ’08. His dynasty potential is strong though as Barber is a free agent in '09 (who currently is asking for top 5 RB money which the Cowboys are balking at) and Cowboys owner is a big Jones fan.   

 

7. CHI RB Matt Forte ($45) - Fightin' Irie 

Forte isn’t a speed demon (4.5 40) but he is versatile and can step right in as a featured, three down back. Chicago desperately needs more production out of their RB position, so Forte is walking into a situation where he likely will be the starter in a run heavy offense. He could be 2008’s offensive rookie of the year - and in fact the Chicago Bears GM stated that they drafted him to be a "3-down back" so in the near term, Forte is a fantasy #3 who could put up #2 numbers.  He's not further up this list because his potential isn't as great as the guys ahead of him but he has as good an opportunity to be productive in '08 as any rookie (sans McFadden & Stewart).

 

8. MIA QB Chad Henne ($35) - Naughty Thoughts

Henne is an experienced starter (39 college starts) from one of the biggest schools (Michigan) entering arguably the most open QB competition in the NFL. He may not start immediately but he has the opportunity with only veteran Josh McCown & ’07 2nd rounder John Beck to beat out for a team in full rebuilding mode.  He won’t be a productive fantasy starter in ’08 but he has a greater than 50/50 chance of being the starting QB in the foreseeable future.  Naughty takes him since it will lock up the Miami starting QB spot for '08 and beyond.   

 

9. TEN RB Chris Johnson ($30) - IMT (via Beavercats)

Johnson won’t be a featured guy but the Titans will give him a lot of carries and split him out into the slot when LenDale White is on the field.  Vince Young excels at throwing screen passes and quick outs, a receiving play that Johnson will be a perfect fit for.  Think of this pick as a combo RB / WR who may only get 100 carries in '08 but he likely will have 50 catches for a combined 1000+ yards and 4 to 5 TD's, a couple from distance - which will make him a #3 fantasy back.  His fantasy upside is somewhat limited due to a frail frame and lack of bulk but his explosiveness will make him a fantasy favorite as a gamebreaker. 

 

10. DET RB Kevin Smith ($30) - IMT (via Short Bus)

This guy had 2600+ total yards in ’07 and nearly broke Barry Sanders single season record.  He did it against  He enters a team that wants to run the football and only Tatum Bell & Brian Calhoun to compete with. Smith has a chance to be a fantasy productive back in ’08.

 

11. GB QB Brian Brohm ($20) - South Whore Jibbers

Brohm goes to a good situation long-term but unless Aaron Rodgers flops or gets injured (both better than average possibilities), Brohm will end up serving a similar apprenticeship that Rodgers went thru - namely sitting & learning on the bench for two to three seasons.  He has good dynasty value for the long haul but don’t expect anything in ’08 or likely ’09. 

 

12. HOU RB Steve Slaton ($20) - Isotopes (via Team Kitty)

Slaton landed in a great spot, Houston is a zone blocking, one cut system that fits his skills perfectly.  He also enters an open situation, and he’s the one guy who has home run ability.  He’s likely only a spot fantasy starter in ’08 but he has nice upside. 

 

13. BAL RB Ray Rice ($15) - Ron Jeremy

Rice is an insurance policy, a change of pace guy to keep Willis McGahee fresh.  Rice is a sparkplug back who surprised scouts with a strong 4.4 40.  He has good long term potential but won’t be anything more than a fantasy reserve in ’08. 

 

14. KC RB Jamaal Charles ($15) - East Bay Funk

The Chiefs landed a home run hitter who provides them insurance and depth at a position that the team wants to build its offense around in ’08. Unfortunately Charles is nothing more than a backup behind one of the NFL’s best RB’s, Larry Johnson.  So this is a pick for the future. 

 

15. NYJ QB Erik Ainge ($10) - Pomona Stoned Hens

Ainge is an experienced big college QB who is more talented than his 5th round selection indicates.  He doesn’t impress anybody with a cannon or mobility but he could be the future starter in NY where Chad Pennington is on his way out and former 2nd rounder Kellen Clemens has failed to establish himself.  Pomona takes Ainge to ensure it has the Jets QB of the future.

 

16. DAL RB Tashard Choice ($10) - PA Firefighters

Choice is a very good, versatile back who likely won’t play much in ’08 but will be a productive player, ala Marion Barber, in ’09 if Barber opts for the big dollars in free agency.  The Cowboys and Barber are $30 million apart in contract negotiations, so that's a more likely scenario than many realize.

Another Option:
MIN QB John David Booty ($10) - Tavares Jackson is heading into a make it or break it year, if he doesn't show the consistency necessary to be an NFL starting QB, Booty will get an opportunity sooner than his 5th round selection would indicate.  Remember this guy was 9-0 vs. top 25 teams and played very well for arguably the best college football team the past two seasons. There is no doubt this guy will be a ten year pro, its just a question of whether that's as a backup or a starter. 
 

 

Comments

[Josh]

The above list is good but the rookie draft is relatively deep so folks could go in a bunch of different orders based on need. Meaning Matt Forte could go as high as #3 or as low as #9, Chris Johnson could fall into #4 or as low as #10, Kevin Jones as #5 or as low as #11...the same with the QB's. It'll be a fun rookie draft simply b/c there are a lot of players with value but few that are obvious selections outside of McFadden, J. Stewart & Matt Ryan.

[Jibaholic]

I have to think that Matt Forte is the #2 or #3 pick with him getting the best opportunity as the #1 back in Chicago since Benson is out.

BTW I get EBF's pick from the Steven Jackson trade.

To recap it was

South Whore Jibbers trade:
Marc Bulger
Michael Turner
Lee Evans
Gus Freorette
Ryan Fitzpatrick

to the East Bay Funk for
Steven Jackson
Terrell Owens
2 DS spots
EBF's next rookie pick

[Josh]

My bad, I'll make the necessary changes.

As for the projections, I'll be posting an updated one that has Matt Forte at #4 & Kevin Smith at #5. Both have since named (or are expected to be) starters for their respective teams.