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    Black Liberace

    Nice effort - but gotta take a stand against the analysis on the Trippers, and I'm going to introduce a new terminology to this style of ranking that is familiar terminology to investors - the concept of beta (a measure of volatility).

    All of our players have an expected outcome based on current situations and past results. This is what's reflected in these rankings. Adding a beta measure would enhance these rankings - high beta players are more likely than average to go up or down a level or more, while low beta player are more likely than average to play at their predicted level. A further refinement would be thinking about 3 different kinds of beta - neutral, positive, and negative beta. High negative beta means a player that could easily lose their job but if not should play as predicted, like a QB2 that could go to a QB reserve if they don't play well, maybe like Rex Grossman. A high neutral beta is someone that might score 18 TD's or might score 3, maybe like Maurice Jones-Drew, while a high positive beta is maybe a player out of the league but might comeback and produce, like Ricky Williams.

    Consider the Beavercats QB's, Vince Young and Donovan McNabb, ranked here as QB1- and QB1 respectively. Adding a beta measure might make them look like this - Young (QB1-, high beta+) McNabb (QB1, beta-). This would say that while Young is on the bottom end of the QB1's (which I would argue should be a QB2+, but I digress), his predicted performance is more uncertain, but to date has been very promising and suggests a higher likelihood than average to continue improvement and outperform expectations. McNabb's performance, on the otherhand, is more certain - he is a solid QB1 but is more likely than average to underperform, given his injury history. Another way to say this is that Young is more likely than average to go up a couple levels from his current ranking (from a QB1-/2+ to a QB1 or QB1+), and McNabb is more likely than average to go down a level or three.

    Adding beta to the Trippers top players looks like this:

    A Smith (QB2+, high beta+)
    JP Losman (QB2+, high beta+)
    Rudi Johnson (RB1, low neutral beta)
    Shaun Alexander (RB1, medium beta-)
    Thomas Jones (RB2+, high neutral beta)

    I have 2 young QB's that are considered to be somewhere between the 18th and 22nd ranked QB's, but are more likely to crack the top 10 than to drop out of the top 30. And I have 3 RB's that are considered in the top 20, while Shaun might be suspect of dropping out of the top 6 or so backs, and Thomas Jones might crack into the top 10 or drop to the back, and Rudi is probably going to put up top 10-15 numbers.

    What's highly undervalued without beta are my receivers. Receivers as a group are already inherently higher beta than the other position. And all of my receivers are high positive betas.

    Joe Horn is expected to do nothing, but people forget he was NO's Jerry Rice and still may have a little in the tank to push himself into Hall of Fame contention. Arnaz Battle was the Niners #1 receiver, has the history with Smith and is still learning the position. Kevin Walter, Michael Clayton, Cedrick Wilson, and Shaun McDonald are all young to youngish players that are expected to do nothing - I think there's a strong chance my next Bernard Berrian/TJ Houshmanzadeh emerges from this group. High degree of certainty: Dwayne Jarrett, Joel Filani, and Steve Smith all have long NFL careers in front of them - uncertain is how quickly they develop. I think the USC players might have more impact than normal rookie WR's and surprise some people.

    I think the Trippers as a group have a higher positive beta than most PAFFL teams, and I would stake my 5 QB's/RB's against any other PAFFL team anyday of the week.

    I like how much parity is predicted - worst teams are 5-8 and best record is 9-4. I predict Trippers go 10-3.

    Firkin

    Great breakdown. I want to personally thank the Commish for brokering the T. Bell rights for cash deal with Kitty. You can't underestimate the importance of who you choose to sit near at the draft. Also, I was personally saddened to see Burchard go down in flames that way. Has there ever been a draft like that with such a monster fuck up leaving that much cash on the table?

    todd2006

    I did it once. I remember Tyrone and Pat doing it once too. Not sure if it was that bad.

    Keep in mind that Tyrone paid 101 for Julius Jones so he screwed up too.

    Beavercat

    Thanks...its always nice to see this stuff out on paper. I adjusted for the small IMT-Beavercat deal this evening. Overall its going to be a tough, competitive year across the board.

    TeamKitty

    It is trendy to hate on the Kitty. That's fine. We admit that it's not going to be as easy as it has been in the past when conquest of the AFC was a foregone conclusion and the only challenge ahead of us was to escape the Curse of the Kitty come Week 16. We've circled the wagons and are preparing for a fight this year.

    RonJeremy

    Conspiracy theorists rejoice. Commish Wetzel is at it again. It's one thing to draft for Firkin, now you're brokering deals to improve his team? Hope he's paying you at least 10%. As for the rankings pretty weak on RJFC. I have 5 #1 ranked players (Beavercats have 6) and you are favored to win the tougher division while I miss the playoffs in a weaker one? Doesn't seem to make much sense. All I need is some L Booker love and I win the division.

    IMT

    Glad to see that IMT is predicted to finish with it's customary 5-8 record. While the team does have holes to fill, they can, and will be filled. IMT is embarassed by it's past performance. It's two championships aside, the team is striving for, year in and year out, respectability. IMT will be competetive,a laughing stock no more.

    I commend the commish for putting together such a comprehensive review and prediction. It spawns great debate and even more comprehensive analisys. A+ for the JT! Of course, most of this changes by week 1. Can't wait for the season to start! PAFFL is a hell of a league!

    Beavercat

    It'll be tight - and as you'll see I made the grades based on starters and immediate backups. If a team lacked a #2 RB or a #2 QB, they were dinged pretty hard (or in the case of the Firefighters where they lack any RB starters :) b/c injuries do occur, and w/o some depth (or having the fortunate to have that year's LT) you need to be able to fill in the holes. But as IMT writes, its just a pre-season analysis, a lot will change between now & the start of the season - injuries in particular will change things dramatically. Things are just starting to get fun :)

    Black Liberace

    RJFC - the standard brokerage fee has been established at 1%, right? What was your brokerage with Irie et al a few weeks ago? I've been on a standard evergreen reciprocating 1% contract with a couple other owners

    Black Liberace

    Getting left with money at the end of the draft is not that dire - that person has been rewarded typically by getting the best available FA drafts when injuries and benchings make things get interesting, as they typically tend to do sooner or later in the season

    Jibaholic

    Todd is right that one year I ended the draft with about 90ish dollars. I sacrificed my team in order to prevent Tadlock from locking up Manning for 70ish. Then I spent $40 to outbid Firkin on Chris Simms. The Black Liberace is right that it wasn't a total waste. I did get a couple of good FAs plus traded some funds for next year's cash. Lastly, I was able to buyoff some worthless contract. By the end of the season, I ended with a $1.

    RonJeremy

    I tried to broker a deal between Firkin and East Bay for $3, pre-auction via my Blackberry. However, neither had the "stuff" to make it happen.

    Firkin

    Burchard went down in flames because he seemed to have no draft plan at all and was taking stabs randomly at players being auctioned. Surprised to see that from a bright guy like Burch who knows a ton about sports.

    Also, RJFC does not have the "stuff" to take the AFC South in any way shape or form. L. Booker (your second RB) is headed for the practice squad! The Swan Song for the AFCS is going to epic!

    Beavercat

    BTW - kudos to Jack Trippers for expanding the 'analysis' to include hypothetical elements to the projected performances of players. I love to see us take this to the next level :)

    Burchard

    For the record, in my 13 years in the Paffl, I have missed the playoffs 3 times. and I can't recall ever having a defined "draft strategy" going in. I always have a few players I target, and all the other shit usually works itself out in the end. It is impossible to predict the market, and I find it more fun to shoot from the hip, go with my gut. Planning out every player, making spreadsheets, it's for birds. You know what they say, about "The best laid plans of mice and men,... and fantasy dorks."

    RonJeremy

    Amen Burch. BTW, why is a team with key pieces like Jason Campbell, Donte Stallworth, and Eli "on the way out" Manning talking shit to Brady, Romo, Westbrook, Fitz and Driver. You will get bitch slapped soon enough Firkin.

    todd2006

    I've said this privately to the Beavercats, but I disagree with his "reserve" markings on many of the players above. A lot of my doubt is placed on his squad. I cannot see Simms, alstott, walker or moore as "reserves". I think it's quite likely that these 4 players will combine for 0 yards this season.

    Why Chris Henry isn't at least a .5 reserve upsets me. Mark Bradley too! Recognize!

    Beavercat

    reserve markings were strictly limited to players who ranked in the next grouping of 16 to 32 on the respective rankings of FantasyIndex and/or FootballGuys. Simms may not play a lot but he was the starter the past two years so just about every ranking service has him in the top 48 QB's. Moore is a future NFL starter and has been a very good back in limited time - he's still listed as the 3rd down back over your over-rated Adrian Peterson (yes I said it, he runs too upright and will NEVER be the great player everybody is predicting) and Alstott - well he's done for his career. As for Walker, come on man, you yourself have asked about him in trade so clearly you think he has value and the Jax coaches have said he's their best receiver talent wise. But he won't play much.
    RE: Chris Henry - he's not a 'reserve' b/c there is no guarantee he'll play this season and Mark Bradley, until Chicago upgrades to at least a mediocre QB (maybe next year they'll sign Chris Simms to start) you can't project any Chicago receiver outside of Muhammad and Berrian to do anything.

    todd2006

    You responded to my post with a blatant attack on the Short Bus and its players.

    "he's still listed as the 3rd down back over your over-rated Adrian Peterson"

    Come on. It makes the paffl look retarded when you're encouraging people to draft M. Moore instead of AD.

    And if you read my statement, I said those 4 players will get zero points this year. They may have future value, but they're not a "reserve" for our league... and if that's the case, they're not a reserve for 99.99% of the fantasy football leagues out there.

    Why not Leonard Pope? Why not Kenny Watson? Priest Holmes? Kyle Boller?

    todd2006

    and i shed a tear over your mean words about my buddy Rex Grossman.

    Take it back.

    Beavercat

    To reiterate for the 6th or 7th time, those are NOT my rankings, they are fantasyindex and footballguys. I'm not saying draft M.Moore or Kenny Watson, neither will be valuable in fantasy leagues this year. But neither will Rex Grossman unless you're in a deep, deep league.

    todd2006

    Grossman is going to blow up this year.

    I mean that in a good way.

    Beavercat

    So will J.T. O'Sullivan.

    todd2006

    All you on that pipe dream.

    What was that name of the NYG rookie RB that went crazy in the preseason and ended up going for 37 dollars at the auction?

    I don't think he ever played in the NFL.

    How many teams have cut O'Sullivan?

    todd2006

    Joe Montgomery was his name, I think.

    Also, with Irons' injury, is Kenny Watson now a RB RESERVE?

    RonJeremy

    Interesting to look back on these predictions now. Wetzel was on target w/ some and way off base w/ others (RJFC in particular!). Depth seems to be overrated as long as your stars stay healthy.

    Beavercat

    It is nice to look back, that's one of the great things about this site - we can always call folks out on their calls. As for being 'off on RJFC', definitely true but that's a case of the perfect storm where nobody could have predicted Tom Brady was going to set the all time TD record or that Tony Romo would come close to reaching 40 TD passes, if both those guys play to their career averages, Ron Jeremy makes the playoffs but it's a LOT closer.

    The team I was really off on was the Firefighters, who ironically were competitive and the eventually champions on the back of their depth (think Maurice Morris & Justin Fargas; and their dual TE attack of Kellen Winslow & Antonio Gates). Basically its important to have depth for when injuries hit but it needs to be productive, and in the Firefighters case it was. Congrats to them for a great season!

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