PAFFL Post-Auction Team Predictions

This is an analysis of each PAFFL franchise, identifying starters and role players on each roster, in an attempt to discern strengths & weaknesses across the board.  From that I made a prediction on each team for this season in the form of a record and whether or not they qualify for the playoffs - from that point on its a matter of momentum and luck.  A couple of points before anybody dives in, the player rankings are done for a league that consists of sixteen teams (thus a number one player at any position is one ranked anywhere between 1-16, & 17-32 = #2, and so on) and the players were ranked by a combination of Fantasy Index & the FootballGuys.com.  I chose these two sources because they're reputable and extensive, meaning they rate more than 25 QB's, 40 RB's and 50 WR's.  So in short, the rankings are the subjective nature of FI & Footballguys.  Please take a read and let me know what you think. 

Ratings Key

• RB1 (or RB2, QB2, WR3) = Position & value of that player.  E.G. RB1 = a #1 running back starter.  WR3 = a #3 wide receiver starter.  There is no such thing as a #3 starting QB b/c that would be a player ranked 33-48, since there are only 32 NFL teams these players by definition can't start. 
• + or - = a player who is at the top or bottom of their respective ranking.  e.g. LT is a RB1++ means he's at the very top of the RB's.
• Reserve = This is a player who is ranked and conceivably will see enough playing time to start a fantasy game but you can't count on them starting. 

PA Short Bus
QB   

1.     Drew Brees    55        QB1+
2.     Matt Schaub    3         QB2
3.     Rex Grossman    56        QB2
4.     Aaron Brooks    1
5.     Dan Orlovsky    1
6.     Kyle Orton    10

RB   

1. Joseph Addai    55        RB1
2. Clinton Portis    82        RB2
3. Marshawn Lynch    55    RB2
4. Adrian Peterson    55    RB2
5. Wali Lundy    5
6. Eric Shelton    1
7. Kenny Watson    1

WR   

1. Chad Johnson    55        WR1+
2. Reggie Brown    9        WR2
3. Maurice Stovall    4    WR Reserve
4. Drew Carter    2        WR Reserve
5. Keenan McCardell    1
6. Mark Bradley    5
7. Chris Henry    4

TE   

1. Jeremy Shockey    15    TE1
2.     Chris Baker    1   

K   

1. Jason Elam    6        K1
2. Mike Vanderjagt    1

$ Left= $11

Summary – 9-4, in the playoffs as the top seed in the AFC.  Arguably the strongest lineup entering the season with depth at key positions (QB & RB), the Short Bus have built a team around cheap starters and game breakers (Brees, Addai & Chad Johnson).  This could be the season they return to the Jankster Cup. 

Naughty Thoughts
QB   

1. Phillip Rivers    51        QB1-   
2. Jeff Garcia    55        QB2
3. John Beck    31        QB reserve
4. Brian Griese    20        QB reserve
5. Jake Plummer    3
6. Billy Volek    3
7. Jim Sorgi    1

RB   

1.     Willis McGahee    80    RB1
2.     LaMont Jordan    55    RB3+
3.     Dominic Rhodes    10    RB reserve
4.     Michael Bush    31        RB reserve
5.     PJ Daniels    3
6.     Tyrone Gross    1

WR   

1.     Steve Smith    66        WR1+
2.     Jerricho Cotchery    13    WR2
3.     Terry Glenn    11        WR3
4.     Mike Furrey    6        WR Reserve
5.     Bryant Johnson    1    WR Reserve
6.     Ernest Wilford    2        WR Reserve
7.     Aaron Moorehead    1
8.     Brandon Stokley    1
9.     Wilbur "Billy" McMullen    1

TE   

1.     Marcus Pollard    1    TE1
2.     Bo Scaife    1        TE2
3.     Daniel Graham    6    TE2

K   

1.     Rian Lindell    1        K1-
2.     John Kasay    4

   

$ Left= $38

Summary – 7-6, in the playoffs.  Decent starting lineup with a stud back, two decent starting QB’s and good depth and starters at WR & TE.  Overall this is a team that could use more playmakers at RB but they have enough production to be relevant.

Pomona Stoned Hens
QB   

1.     Jon Kitna    5        QB1
2.     Chad Pennington    76    QB2
3.     Josh McCown    21        QB Reserve
4.     Aaron Rodgers    36
5.     Luke McCown    14    QB reserve
6.     Kellen Clemens    16
7.     Charlie Whitehurst    4
8.     David Greene    8   

RB   

1.     Travis Henry    11        RB1
2.     Jamal Lewis    95        RB2
3.     Mike Bell    2       
4.     Brian Calhoun    22
5.     DeShawn Wynn     4    RB Reserve

WR   

1.     Javon Walker    46        WR1
2.     Greg Jennings    8        WR2-
3.     Matt Jones    16        WR Reserve
4.     Jacoby Jones    7        WR Reserve
5.     Robert Meachem    10    WR Reserve
6.     Tab Perry    4        WR Reserve
7.     Travis Wilson    1
8.     Troy Williamson    24    WR Reserve
9.     Wes Walker    4        WR Reserve

TE   

1. Alge Crumpler    15    TE1
2. Mercedes Lewis    14

K   

1. Adam Vinatieri    13    K1+

$ Left= $9

Summary – 7-6, in the playoffs on the strength of decent QB play and projected outstanding seasons from Travis Henry, J. Lewis, J. Walker and G. Jennings.

Team Kitty
QB   

1. Jake Delhomme    55    QB1-
2.     Steve McNair    64        QB2
3.     Joey Harrington    55    QB2-

RB

1. Cedric Benson    55        RB1-
2. Chester Taylor    55        RB2-
3. DeShaun Foster    55    RB3
4.     Kevan Barlow    8
5.     Maurice Hicks    1
6.     Justin Vincent    2

WR   

1. Andre Johnson    45    WR2+
2. Laverenous Coles    19    WR2
3. Eddie Kennison    13    WR3-
4. Joe Jurevicious    1    WR Reserve
5. Chad Jackson    19
6. Marty Booker    1        WR Reserve

TE   

1.     Dallas Clark    11        TE1-
2.     Desmond Clark    1    TE2
3.     George Wrightster    1

K   

1.     Jeff Wilkins    5        K1
2.     Lawrence Tynes    1

$ Left= $27

Summary – 6-7, out of the playoffs.  This is the first season in the new millennium that TK won’t make the playoffs.  They’re simply too average across their roster and don’t have enough depth to make the necessary adjustments required to make it to the postseason.  This should be a rebuilding season for the Kitty.

Firkin Crawlers
QB   

1.     Eli Manning    80        QB1-
2.     Jason Campbell    26    QB2
3.     Anthony Wright    1
4.     Jared Lorenzen    2

RB   

1. Ronnie Brown    55        RB2+
2. Tatum Bell    51        RB3+
3. Brandon Jackson    55    RB3
4. Chris Henry    36        RB Reserve

WR   

1.     Marvin Harrison    68    WR1+
2.     Donte Stallworth    29    WR3
3.     Craig Davis    8        WR Reserve+
4.     Eric Moulds    2        WR Reserve+
5.     Patrick Crayton    3     WR Reserve

TE   

1. L.J. Smith    11        TE1
2. Benjamin Watson    9    TE1

K   

1. Shayne Graham    9    K1+
2. Mason Crosby    1        K2

$ Left = $23

Summary – 8-5, playoff team with necessary components to win the Jankster Cup. Good starting lineup with nice depth at RB, WR & TE.  They could withstand injuries without completely falling apart.   Success hinges on Eli Manning & Jason Campbell maturing this season and picking up the right additions at WR and/or RB.

Fightin’ Irie
QB   

1. Byron Leftwich    80    QB2
2. Charlie Frye    21        QB Reserve+
3. Brooks Bollinger    11    QB Reserve
4. D.J. Shockley    3        QB Reserve
5. Quinn Gray    1
6. Trent Edwards    16

RB   

1.     Edgerrin James    97    RB1-
2.     Brandon Jacobs    17    RB2
3.     Michael Turner    1        RB3
4.     Brian Leonard    21        RB3-
5.     Michael Robinson    7    RB Reserve+
6.     JJ Arrington    10

WR   

1.     Anquan Boldin    55    WR1-
2.     Roy Williams    55        WR1-
3.     Vincent Jackson    7    WR3+
4.     Reggie Williams    6    WR Reserve-
5.     Jason Hill    5       
6.     Yamon Figurs    2

TE   

1.     Chris Cooley    16        TE1
2.     Jeramy Stevens    3

K   

1. Neil Rackers    8        K1

   

$ Left = $37

Summary – 6-7, out of the playoffs, mostly b/c a lack of guaranteed production at QB and little depth outside of RB.  If everything hits just right, particularly with Leftwich & Frye playing much of the year or they make the right deals, FI could win 7 or 8 games and make the playoffs.

Ron Jeremy Fanclub
QB   

1.     Tom Brady    126        QB1+
2.     Tony Romo    55        QB1
3.     Matt Mauck    1       
4.     Michael Vick    16       
5.     Tim Couch    1

RB   

1.     Brian Westbrook    55    RB1
2.     Michael Bennett    10    RB Reserve
3.     Lorenzo Booker    37    RB Reserve
4.     Tony Hunt    17
5.     Alonzo Coleman    1
6.     Ahmad Bradshaw    2
7.     Justise Hairston    1   
8.     Kenneth Darby    1

WR   

1.     Larry Fitzgerald    53    WR1
2.     Donald Driver    37        WR1-
3.     Michael Jenkins    5    WR3-
4.     Aundrae Allison    1
5.     Brandon Lloyd    3
6.     Derek Hagan    6
7.     Devin Hester    1
8.     Legedu Naanee    1
9.     Nate Burleson    1       WR Reserve
10.     Robert Ferguson    4
11.     Roy Hall    3

TE   

1.     Randy McMichael    5    TE1-
2.     Joe Klopenstein    3   
3.     Rodney Hannah    1

K   

1.     Josh Brown    7        K1
2.     Martin Grammatica    1

$ Left = $24

Summary – 6-7, out of the playoffs.  Great QB’s, arguably the 2nd best duo in the league don’t make up for the lack of depth across the roster and holes at RB.  If things go right they could easily be in the playoffs but at this point their division is better this season and it will take more balanced effort that on paper they don’t have at this moment.

Blak Jesus
QB’s   

1.     Trent Green    70        QB2-
2.     Troy Smith    12   
3.     Seneca Wallace 4       
4.     Brad Johnson 1
5.     Charlie Batch 1

RB’s   

1.     Deuce McAllister    80    RB2+
2.     Julius Jones    101        RB2-
3.     Leon Washington    22    RB3
4.     Vernand Morency    24    RB3

WR   

1.     TJ Houshmandzadeh    26    WR1
2.     Joey Galloway    25           WR2
3.     DJ Hackett    18                WR3
4.     Anthony Gonzales    20    WR Reserve
5.     Ashley Lelie 13
6.     Nate Washington 1
7.     Paul Williams 2

TE   

1.     Tony Gonzales    31    TE1+
2.     Zach Miller    5        TE2-

K   

1.     Jeff Reed    2        K2+
2.     John Carney    1        K2

$ Left = $23

Summary – Deeper than folks give them credit for, BJ maybe too weak at QB to make a playoff push.  5-8, no playoffs in ’07 due to an improved division and a lack of playmakers to push them over the top.

Salem Beavercats    
QB   

1.     Donovan McNabb    61    QB1
2.     Vince Young    55        QB1-
3.     Daunte Culpepper    17    QB2-
4.     David Garrard    10        QB Reserve
5.     Chris Simms    9        QB Reserve
6.     AJ Feeley    1
7.     Patrick Ramsey    4
8.     J.T. O'Sullivan    1

RB   

1.     Willie Parker    7         RB1
2.     Maurice Drew    26        RB1
3.     Cadillac Williams    55    RB2
4.     TJ Duckett    16        RB Reserve+
5.     Mewelde Moore    8    RB Reserve   
6.     Michael Pittman    4    RB Reserve
7.     Mike Alstott    1        RB Reserve
8.     Garrett Wolfe    10        RB Reserve-
9.     Tyson Thompson    1

WR       

1.     Reggie Wayne    55        WR1
2.     Marquez Colston    35    WR1
3.     Chris Chambers    26    WR2
4.     Santonio Holmes    22    WR2-
5.     Kevin Curtis    2        WR3
6.     Jerry Porter    11        WR3
7.     Mike Walker    7         WR Reserve
8.     Brad Smith    1
9.     Courtney Roby    1
10.     Laurent Robinson    1       

TE   

1.     Jason Whitten     16        TE1

K   

1.     Nate Kaeding    6        K1
2.     Robbie Gould    1        K1

$ Left= $9

Summary – 8-5, in the playoffs & top seed in the NFC.  There are enough playmakers (McNabb, VYoung, WParker, Jones-Drew, R. Wayne & Colston) and plenty of depth to ensure the playoffs.  A Jankster Cup run will be a result of luck and/or the maturation of younger prospects such as K. Curtis, Cadillac Williams among others.

East Bay Funk
QB   

1.     Marc Bulger    56        QB1
2.     Bruce Gradkowski    1
3.     Gus Frerotte  1
4.     Ryan Fitzpatrick 1

RB    

1. LaDainian Tomlinson    125    RB1++
2. Laurence Maroney    55      RB1-
3. LenDale White    55            RB3
4. Kenny Irons    30                RB3-
5. Sammy Morris    10          RB Reserve
6. Greg Jones    10              RB Reserve

WR   

1. Lee Evans    21           WR1
2. Calvin Johnson    46    WR2-
3. Bernard Berrian    2      WR3+
4. Antawwn Randal El    4    WR Reserve
5. James Jones    3        WR Reserve

TE   

1. Vernon Davis    23        TE1

K   

1. Josh Scobee    3        K1-
2. Rob Bironas    1        K2-

$ Left = 38

Summary – Playoff team, 7-6, in on a tiebreaker, with enough playmakers to make noise deep.  But an injury to Bulger and/or LT and they’re fighting for a top 8 rookie pick.

PA Firefighters
QB   

1.     Payton Manning    117    QB1++
2.     Carson Palmer    80        QB1+
3.     Tavaris Jackson    37    QB2--
4.     Matt Cassell    8

RB   

1.     Ladell Betts    11        RB3+
2.     Adrian Peterson    7    RB Reserve
3.     Maurice Norris    7    RB Reserve
4.     Chris Perry    20
5.     Justin Fargas    1
6.     Mike Sellers    1
7.     Verron Hayes    1

WR   

1.     Randy Moss    46        WR2+
2.     Deion Branch    30        WR2+
3.     Santana Moss    30        WR2
4.     Devery Henderson    6    WR3
5.     Ronald Curry    10        WR3
6.     Bobby Wade    2        WR Reserve
7.     Drew Bennett    6        WR Reserve
8.     Ted Ginn Jr.    6        WR Reserve
9.     Amani Toomer    1

TE   

1.     Antonio Gates    41        TE1++
2.     Kellen Winslow    17    TE1
3.     Bubba Franks    1       
4.     Leonard Pope    4
5.     Dominque Byrd    1

K   

1.     Matt Stover    4        K1
2.     Mike Nugent    2        K1-
3.     Olindo Mare    2        K1-

$ Left= $16

Summary – 6-7, out of the playoffs.  The best starting QB’s in the league will only take a team so far when they lack any starting quality RB’s and are trying to get by with second tier starting Kickers, a surprise given their usual focus on securing one of the top kicker performers each season.

IMT   
QB   

1.     Ben Rothlisberger    85    QB1-
2.     Drew Stanton    41       

RB   

1.     Ahman Green    86        RB2
2.     Jerious Norwood    36    RB2
3.     DeAngelo Williams    55    RB2   
4.     Chris Brown    36        RB3
5.     Correll Buckhalter    10    RB Reserve
6.     Corey Dillon    11       
7.     Kolby Smith    5   
8.     Mike Anderson    8    RB Reserve

WR   

1.     Hines Ward    46        WR2+
2.     Braylon Edwards    26    WR2
3.     Eric Parker    4        WR3-
4.     Dennis Northcutt    1    WR Reserve
5.     Marcus Robinson    1
6.     Sinorice Moss    16
7.     Jeff Webb    1

TE   

1.     Greg Olsen    7        TE2
2.     Robert Royal    1        TE2-

K   

1.     David Akers    7        K1
2.     Dave Rayner    1        K2

$ left= $37

Summary – 5-8, out of the playoffs.  Their division is too tough to win more than a game or two, which means they will need to go 6-1 in their remaining non-division games to make the playoffs.  With only 1 quarterback, 2 starting WR’s and no clear stud backs it will be tough.  They have a nice stable of backs though, so they will be competitive.

South Whore Jibbers
QB   

1.     Jay Cutler    55        QB1
2.     Brady Quinn    55        QB Reserve
3.     David Carr    31        QB Reserve   
4.     Derek Anderson    10    QB Reserve
5.     Craig Nall    4       
6.     Jordan Palmer    1

RB   

1.     Stephen Jackson    55    RB1+
2.     Frank Gore    57        RB1+
3.     Fred Taylor    69        RB3
4.     Jason Snelling    5        RB Reserve
5.     Najeh Davenport    6    RB Reserve
6.     Cecil Sapp    3       
7.     Ricky Williams    6

WR   

1.     Terrell Owens    52        WR1+
2.     Plaxico Burress    24    WR1-
3.     Brandon Marshall    4    WR3
4.     Derrick Mason    6    WR3-
5.     Roddy White    8        WR Reserve
6.     Roydell Williams    1    WR Reserve
7.     Sidney Rice    9        WR Reserve

TE   

1.     Owens Daniels    8    TE1-
2.     Alex Smith    3
3.     Courtney Anderson    3
4.     Dave Thomas    1
5.     Kevin Boss    1

K   

1.     Stephen Gostkowski    5    K1
2.     Jason Hanson    3

$ Left= $17

Summary – 7-6, in the playoffs on the strength of amazing RB’s, very good WR’s and depth.  What holds back SW though is a single starting QB who enters their 2nd season.  If they get things to fall their way, this team could be hoisting its second Jankster Cup title.

Los Frijoles Pintos
QB   

1.     Matt Hasselbeck    101    QB1
2.     Matt Leinart    55        QB1-
3.     Brodie Croyle    25        QB2-
4.     JaMarcus Russell    55    QB Reserve
5.     Kevin Kolb    18
6.     Andrew Walter    12

RB   

1.     Reggie Bush    55        RB1
2.     Marion Barber III    7    RB2
3.     Kevin Jones    26        RB3
4.     De De Dorsey    4        RB Reserve
5.     Kevin Faulk    5        RB Reserve

WR   

1.     Torry Holt    59        WR1+
2.     Mark Clayton    17        WR2+
3.     Muhsin Muhammad    6    WR3
4.     Samie Parker    4        WR Reserve
5.     Hank Baskett    3       
6.     Peerless Price    1
7.     Dominique Hickson    1

TE   

1.     Todd Heap    23        TE1+
2.     Tony Scheffler    7    TE2
3.     Ben Troupe    4        TE2
4.     David Martin    3        TE2

K   

1.     Jay Feely    2        K2-
2.     Phil Dawson    2        K2-
3.     Justin Medlock    1    K2-

$ Left= $4

Summary – 7-6, in the playoffs on a tiebreaker.  Solid starters across the board with depth at QB & TE.  A little thin at WR and could use an upgrade at K but overall this has the looks of a playoff team.

Jack Trippers    
QB   

1.     Alex Smith    55        QB2+
2.     JP Losman    33        QB2+
3.     Cleo Lemon    2        QB Reserve+
4.     Sage Rosenfels    1
5.     Trent Dilfer    1
6.     Jeff Rowe    1   

RB   

1.     Shaun Alexander    126    RB1
2.     Rudi Johnson    101        RB1
3.     Thomas Jones    55        RB2+
4.     Dwayne Wright    4
5.     Thomas Clayton    5

WR   

1.     Joe Horn    10        WR reserve+
2.     Arnaz Battle    10        WR Reserve
3.     Kevin Walter    1        WR reserve-
4.     Michael Clayton    15    WR reserve-
5.     Cedrick Wilson    1    WR reserve-
6.     Dwayne Jarrett    15    WR reserve-
7.     Joel Filani    1
8.     Shaun McDonald    1
9.     Steve Smith    7

TE   

1. Heath Miller    10        TE1-

K   

1.     Ryan Longwell    5    K2+
2.     Sebastian Janikowski    3    K2-

$ Left= $40

Summary – 7-6, out of the playoffs on a tiebreaker.  Any team with 3 #2 or better starting RB’s and two starting QB’s has a chance but the Trippers feature the worst starting WR/TE combo in the league and will need all of their QB’s & RB’s to remain healthy and productive to make the extra stanza.

Los Altos Isotopes   
QB   

1.     Brett Favre    76        QB1-
2.     Damon Huard    28        QB2-
3.     Kurt Warner    6       
4.     Kyle Boller    23

RB   

1.     Larry Johnson    55        RB1+
2.     Rueben Droughns    55    RB3+
3.     Warrick Dunn    25        RB3
4.     Anthony Thomas    2    RB3-
5.     Ron Dayne    12        RB3-
6.     Jerome Harrison    8    RB Reserve
7.     Marcel Shipp    10        RB Reserve
8.     Alvin Pearman    1   
9.     Priest Holmes    8

WR   

1.     Darrell Jackson    25    WR2-
2.     Isaac Bruce    6        WR3
3.     Brandon Jones    2        WR Reserve
4.     Demetrius Williams    6    WR Reserve
5.     Dwayne Bowe     16    WR Reserve
6.     Antonio  Bryant    5
7.     Josh Reed    1
8.     Brandon Williams    1
9.     Jordan Kent    2
10.     Mike Williams    2

TE   

1. Eric Johnson    6        TE2

K   

1.     Joe Nedney    4        K1-
2.     Matt Bryant    3
3.     Todd Peterson    4
4.     Shawn Shusham    1

$ Left= $101

Summary – 5-8, out of the playoffs.  Isotopes will be better than this if LJ matches his ’06 numbers this year and Damon Huard starts more than a handful of games, without both of those things coming to fruition and some astute FA pickups, this will be a rebuilding year for the recent 3-peat Jankster cup champion.

Comments

[Black Liberace]

Nice effort - but gotta take a stand against the analysis on the Trippers, and I'm going to introduce a new terminology to this style of ranking that is familiar terminology to investors - the concept of beta (a measure of volatility).

All of our players have an expected outcome based on current situations and past results. This is what's reflected in these rankings. Adding a beta measure would enhance these rankings - high beta players are more likely than average to go up or down a level or more, while low beta player are more likely than average to play at their predicted level. A further refinement would be thinking about 3 different kinds of beta - neutral, positive, and negative beta. High negative beta means a player that could easily lose their job but if not should play as predicted, like a QB2 that could go to a QB reserve if they don't play well, maybe like Rex Grossman. A high neutral beta is someone that might score 18 TD's or might score 3, maybe like Maurice Jones-Drew, while a high positive beta is maybe a player out of the league but might comeback and produce, like Ricky Williams.

Consider the Beavercats QB's, Vince Young and Donovan McNabb, ranked here as QB1- and QB1 respectively. Adding a beta measure might make them look like this - Young (QB1-, high beta+) McNabb (QB1, beta-). This would say that while Young is on the bottom end of the QB1's (which I would argue should be a QB2+, but I digress), his predicted performance is more uncertain, but to date has been very promising and suggests a higher likelihood than average to continue improvement and outperform expectations. McNabb's performance, on the otherhand, is more certain - he is a solid QB1 but is more likely than average to underperform, given his injury history. Another way to say this is that Young is more likely than average to go up a couple levels from his current ranking (from a QB1-/2+ to a QB1 or QB1+), and McNabb is more likely than average to go down a level or three.

Adding beta to the Trippers top players looks like this:

A Smith (QB2+, high beta+)
JP Losman (QB2+, high beta+)
Rudi Johnson (RB1, low neutral beta)
Shaun Alexander (RB1, medium beta-)
Thomas Jones (RB2+, high neutral beta)

I have 2 young QB's that are considered to be somewhere between the 18th and 22nd ranked QB's, but are more likely to crack the top 10 than to drop out of the top 30. And I have 3 RB's that are considered in the top 20, while Shaun might be suspect of dropping out of the top 6 or so backs, and Thomas Jones might crack into the top 10 or drop to the back, and Rudi is probably going to put up top 10-15 numbers.

What's highly undervalued without beta are my receivers. Receivers as a group are already inherently higher beta than the other position. And all of my receivers are high positive betas.

Joe Horn is expected to do nothing, but people forget he was NO's Jerry Rice and still may have a little in the tank to push himself into Hall of Fame contention. Arnaz Battle was the Niners #1 receiver, has the history with Smith and is still learning the position. Kevin Walter, Michael Clayton, Cedrick Wilson, and Shaun McDonald are all young to youngish players that are expected to do nothing - I think there's a strong chance my next Bernard Berrian/TJ Houshmanzadeh emerges from this group. High degree of certainty: Dwayne Jarrett, Joel Filani, and Steve Smith all have long NFL careers in front of them - uncertain is how quickly they develop. I think the USC players might have more impact than normal rookie WR's and surprise some people.

I think the Trippers as a group have a higher positive beta than most PAFFL teams, and I would stake my 5 QB's/RB's against any other PAFFL team anyday of the week.

I like how much parity is predicted - worst teams are 5-8 and best record is 9-4. I predict Trippers go 10-3.

[Firkin]

Great breakdown. I want to personally thank the Commish for brokering the T. Bell rights for cash deal with Kitty. You can't underestimate the importance of who you choose to sit near at the draft. Also, I was personally saddened to see Burchard go down in flames that way. Has there ever been a draft like that with such a monster fuck up leaving that much cash on the table?

[todd2006]

I did it once. I remember Tyrone and Pat doing it once too. Not sure if it was that bad.

Keep in mind that Tyrone paid 101 for Julius Jones so he screwed up too.

[Beavercat]

Thanks...its always nice to see this stuff out on paper. I adjusted for the small IMT-Beavercat deal this evening. Overall its going to be a tough, competitive year across the board.

[TeamKitty]

It is trendy to hate on the Kitty. That's fine. We admit that it's not going to be as easy as it has been in the past when conquest of the AFC was a foregone conclusion and the only challenge ahead of us was to escape the Curse of the Kitty come Week 16. We've circled the wagons and are preparing for a fight this year.

[RonJeremy]

Conspiracy theorists rejoice. Commish Wetzel is at it again. It's one thing to draft for Firkin, now you're brokering deals to improve his team? Hope he's paying you at least 10%. As for the rankings pretty weak on RJFC. I have 5 #1 ranked players (Beavercats have 6) and you are favored to win the tougher division while I miss the playoffs in a weaker one? Doesn't seem to make much sense. All I need is some L Booker love and I win the division.

[IMT]

Glad to see that IMT is predicted to finish with it's customary 5-8 record. While the team does have holes to fill, they can, and will be filled. IMT is embarassed by it's past performance. It's two championships aside, the team is striving for, year in and year out, respectability. IMT will be competetive,a laughing stock no more.

I commend the commish for putting together such a comprehensive review and prediction. It spawns great debate and even more comprehensive analisys. A+ for the JT! Of course, most of this changes by week 1. Can't wait for the season to start! PAFFL is a hell of a league!

[Beavercat]

It'll be tight - and as you'll see I made the grades based on starters and immediate backups. If a team lacked a #2 RB or a #2 QB, they were dinged pretty hard (or in the case of the Firefighters where they lack any RB starters :) b/c injuries do occur, and w/o some depth (or having the fortunate to have that year's LT) you need to be able to fill in the holes. But as IMT writes, its just a pre-season analysis, a lot will change between now & the start of the season - injuries in particular will change things dramatically. Things are just starting to get fun :)

[Black Liberace]

RJFC - the standard brokerage fee has been established at 1%, right? What was your brokerage with Irie et al a few weeks ago? I've been on a standard evergreen reciprocating 1% contract with a couple other owners

[Black Liberace]

Getting left with money at the end of the draft is not that dire - that person has been rewarded typically by getting the best available FA drafts when injuries and benchings make things get interesting, as they typically tend to do sooner or later in the season

[Jibaholic]

Todd is right that one year I ended the draft with about 90ish dollars. I sacrificed my team in order to prevent Tadlock from locking up Manning for 70ish. Then I spent $40 to outbid Firkin on Chris Simms. The Black Liberace is right that it wasn't a total waste. I did get a couple of good FAs plus traded some funds for next year's cash. Lastly, I was able to buyoff some worthless contract. By the end of the season, I ended with a $1.

[RonJeremy]

I tried to broker a deal between Firkin and East Bay for $3, pre-auction via my Blackberry. However, neither had the "stuff" to make it happen.

[Firkin]

Burchard went down in flames because he seemed to have no draft plan at all and was taking stabs randomly at players being auctioned. Surprised to see that from a bright guy like Burch who knows a ton about sports.

Also, RJFC does not have the "stuff" to take the AFC South in any way shape or form. L. Booker (your second RB) is headed for the practice squad! The Swan Song for the AFCS is going to epic!

[Beavercat]

BTW - kudos to Jack Trippers for expanding the 'analysis' to include hypothetical elements to the projected performances of players. I love to see us take this to the next level :)

[Burchard]

For the record, in my 13 years in the Paffl, I have missed the playoffs 3 times. and I can't recall ever having a defined "draft strategy" going in. I always have a few players I target, and all the other shit usually works itself out in the end. It is impossible to predict the market, and I find it more fun to shoot from the hip, go with my gut. Planning out every player, making spreadsheets, it's for birds. You know what they say, about "The best laid plans of mice and men,... and fantasy dorks."

[RonJeremy]

Amen Burch. BTW, why is a team with key pieces like Jason Campbell, Donte Stallworth, and Eli "on the way out" Manning talking shit to Brady, Romo, Westbrook, Fitz and Driver. You will get bitch slapped soon enough Firkin.

[todd2006]

I've said this privately to the Beavercats, but I disagree with his "reserve" markings on many of the players above. A lot of my doubt is placed on his squad. I cannot see Simms, alstott, walker or moore as "reserves". I think it's quite likely that these 4 players will combine for 0 yards this season.

Why Chris Henry isn't at least a .5 reserve upsets me. Mark Bradley too! Recognize!

[Beavercat]

reserve markings were strictly limited to players who ranked in the next grouping of 16 to 32 on the respective rankings of FantasyIndex and/or FootballGuys. Simms may not play a lot but he was the starter the past two years so just about every ranking service has him in the top 48 QB's. Moore is a future NFL starter and has been a very good back in limited time - he's still listed as the 3rd down back over your over-rated Adrian Peterson (yes I said it, he runs too upright and will NEVER be the great player everybody is predicting) and Alstott - well he's done for his career. As for Walker, come on man, you yourself have asked about him in trade so clearly you think he has value and the Jax coaches have said he's their best receiver talent wise. But he won't play much.
RE: Chris Henry - he's not a 'reserve' b/c there is no guarantee he'll play this season and Mark Bradley, until Chicago upgrades to at least a mediocre QB (maybe next year they'll sign Chris Simms to start) you can't project any Chicago receiver outside of Muhammad and Berrian to do anything.

[todd2006]

You responded to my post with a blatant attack on the Short Bus and its players.

"he's still listed as the 3rd down back over your over-rated Adrian Peterson"

Come on. It makes the paffl look retarded when you're encouraging people to draft M. Moore instead of AD.

And if you read my statement, I said those 4 players will get zero points this year. They may have future value, but they're not a "reserve" for our league... and if that's the case, they're not a reserve for 99.99% of the fantasy football leagues out there.

Why not Leonard Pope? Why not Kenny Watson? Priest Holmes? Kyle Boller?

[todd2006]

and i shed a tear over your mean words about my buddy Rex Grossman.

Take it back.

[Beavercat]

To reiterate for the 6th or 7th time, those are NOT my rankings, they are fantasyindex and footballguys. I'm not saying draft M.Moore or Kenny Watson, neither will be valuable in fantasy leagues this year. But neither will Rex Grossman unless you're in a deep, deep league.

[todd2006]

Grossman is going to blow up this year.

I mean that in a good way.

[Beavercat]

So will J.T. O'Sullivan.

[todd2006]

All you on that pipe dream.

What was that name of the NYG rookie RB that went crazy in the preseason and ended up going for 37 dollars at the auction?

I don't think he ever played in the NFL.

How many teams have cut O'Sullivan?

[todd2006]

Joe Montgomery was his name, I think.

Also, with Irons' injury, is Kenny Watson now a RB RESERVE?

[RonJeremy]

Interesting to look back on these predictions now. Wetzel was on target w/ some and way off base w/ others (RJFC in particular!). Depth seems to be overrated as long as your stars stay healthy.

[Beavercat]

It is nice to look back, that's one of the great things about this site - we can always call folks out on their calls. As for being 'off on RJFC', definitely true but that's a case of the perfect storm where nobody could have predicted Tom Brady was going to set the all time TD record or that Tony Romo would come close to reaching 40 TD passes, if both those guys play to their career averages, Ron Jeremy makes the playoffs but it's a LOT closer.

The team I was really off on was the Firefighters, who ironically were competitive and the eventually champions on the back of their depth (think Maurice Morris & Justin Fargas; and their dual TE attack of Kellen Winslow & Antonio Gates). Basically its important to have depth for when injuries hit but it needs to be productive, and in the Firefighters case it was. Congrats to them for a great season!

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