Top NFL Rookies - Projected PAFFL Rookie Selections

The PAFFL has sixteen rookie pick selections, which allow each of its franchises to control (either out right or thru a topper) a rookie.  The right can also be traded for value at any time, thus many franchises will leverage a future rookie pick for value in the current season.  The league has made the selection of rookies part of the year round discussion of trade because each pick can be immediately signed for $55 or topped (which means the pick/player is available in the next day's auction and the team that owns its 'topper' rights can take them for $1 more than the final bid in the auction).  It may sound complicated but its straight forward, so without further ado here are my projected rookie selections for 2007. 

2007 PAFFL Rookie Mock Selections
There is more extensive bio & analysis behind each of these selections, just click on there name.

1. RB Adrian Peterson Minnesota Vikings - PA Short Bus ($55) - Peterson has the most upside long-term and potential near term. 
2. RB Marshawn Lynch Buffalo Bills - PA Short Bus ($55) - Lynch doesn't quite have the same overall talent as Peterson but he's in a better situation for '07, and likely is a better option for teams in 1 year leagues and/or in need of immediate impact production. 
3. QB JaMarcus Russell Oakland Raiders - Los Frijoles Pintos ($55) - For those not in keeper leagues, Russell drops 3 spots, but he has tremendous long-term potential and will be a solid selection at #3.
4. QB Brady Quinn Cleveland Browns - Firkin Crawlers ($55) - Quinn sits at this spot regardless of the league type you're in, he's NFL ready and though he's not going to put up stats worthy of a fantasy starting QB he could have his moments in this offense  - and long-term he's their franchise QB. 
5. RB Brandon Jackson Green Bay Packers - South Whore Jibbers ($45) - Jackson would be the #3 selection in annual leagues because of his situation and potential to be a starting back for Green Bay this year.  He's a boom or bust type guy though and more than likely will be splitting time with veteran Vernand Morency.
6. QB Drew Stanton Detroit Lions - IMT ($40) - If you're not in a keeper league Stanton drops two spots but long-term he maybe in the best situation of any of the rookie signal callers.  He has all the physical ability to excel and he's going to learn from arguably the best offensive coordinator in the NFL today - if he can crack some of his bad habits, Stanton could be a top 10 QB in 2008.
7. RB Chris Henry Tennessee Titans - Pomona Stoned Hens ($30) - Henry is an intriguing prospect b/c of his size/speed ratio and the opportunity to get significant playing time with Vince Young.  If he proves to be more than just an athlete, he could be the steal of this draft for fantasy leaguers.
8. QB John Beck Miami Dolphins - Naughty Thoughts ($25) - Beck is an intriguing keeper league prospect b/c he's mature, has shown he can make all the right throws, has demonstrated the intangibles and is more NFL ready due to his age (25) and experience in different offenses.  Throw in the fact he's behind 37 year old Trent Green and will play for the creatively minded offensive focused Cam Cameron with nice weapons around him (Chambers, T. Ginn Jr., R. Brown & L. Booker), and he will be a better value than the more decorated rookie QB's ahead of him.
9. WR Calvin Johnson Detroit Lions - East Bay Funk ($40) - In many fantasy leagues CJ would go 3 spots earlier but he has a couple things holding him back despite being arguably the most dominant receiver to EVER enter the NFL.  1) he will be at best the #2 option on his team behind the talented & more experienced Roy Williams, 2) he is a rookie, so he will be limited no matter how you look at it, 3) he may hold out, resulting in falling further behind, and lastly 4) Mike Martz offense has thrown for a LOT of yards in recent years but not as many TD's (24 has been the high over the past 5 NFL seasons), meaning that CJ's limits are likely 800 yards & 7 or 8 TD's - but he'll more likely end up with 5 TD's and 750 yards - great numbers for a rookie WR but likely worse than the rookie RB's ahead of him - and maybe others behind him on this list. 
10. RB Kenny Irons Cincinnati Bengals - IMT ($20) - This is where the list drops off some, there are plenty of talented players left but it's more subjective as to who is best.  Irons was pegged as a 1st round talent but dropped due to questions about his size, durability and a lack of need for RB's among NFL teams.  That said Irons fills an important need joining another Auburn alumnus (Rudi Johnson) providing a counter punch to Rudi's power.  With Chris Perry starting the year on the PUP, Irons will get plenty of playing time in one of the NFL's top offenses - and if he shows the burst and quickness that had scouts drooling in college, he's well positioned to eventually succeed Johnson in a couple of years.  At the very least he's a good fantasy role player in 2007 who should compile 400 to 500 total yards and 3 to 5 TD's.
11. RB Lorenzo Booker Miami Dolphins - Salem Beavercats ($15) - Booker, the nation's top college recruit in 2003, has drawn comparisons to former FSU alum Warrick Dunn.  They have similar skill sets, Booker is extremely versatile with great hands, strong fundamentals and the quickness/breakaway speed to bring a game breaking element to the Dolphins.  The difference though is Booker is bigger than Dunn, and though he didn't put up the same numbers in college, he also played with a much weaker surrounding cast and some think that Booker will be a much better pro than he was in college precisely b/c of that.  Booker will enter the season as the counter to starter Ronnie Brown, so he won't be in line to be the featured guy - however Brown has been injury prone since his days at Auburn - and the at very least Cam Cameron will find ways to get him involved. 
12. RB Michael Bush Oakland Raiders - Fightin' Irie ($25) - Many fantasy leaguers will select Bush higher b/c of the hype from college and the clearer path to playing time.  While Bush is a physical specimen with outstanding speed/size, and he could conceivably be the Oakland starter as soon as 2008, one has to remember that he's had two major surgeries in the past ten months and is still not 100%.  Furthermore he played in a dynamic offense in a subpar conference that ran up pinball machine like offensive numbers.  Bush backup, Kolby Smith, put up huge numbers in his absence and former Louisville teammate Eric Shelton showed how his college numbers translated to the NFL.  Basically Bush is a huge boom/bust type of talent, he could be a Brandon Jacobs type (that's probably the closest NFL comparison) or more of a Rob Riddick type (goal line specialist who didn't have enough wiggle to be the featured guy). 
13. WR Dwayne Bowe Kansas City Chiefs - Los Frijoles Pintos ($20) - Bowe has featured receiver size and demonstrated in college he has the competitiveness to be a go to receiver on the pro level.  Most importantly he could be the 'man' this year, but more likely he'll be a solid #2 fantasy receiver in '08 and if everything goes as the Chiefs planned, he'll be a #1 fantasy receiver in '09.
    
14. QB Trent Edwards Buffalo Bills - PA Short Bus ($15) - Edwards is a prototype QB with his size, athletic ability, and arm strength.  He didn't show NFL starting ability in college but he played on a terrible Stanford team and showed enough that he could be a viable NFL player with time.  Throw in the uncertainty around JP Losman and Edwards is a potential starter in 2008 or '09.   
15. RB Antonio Pittman NO Saints - Team Kitty ($12) - Pittman would be further up this list if not for being on the Saints where he sits behind McAllister and Reggie Bush.  Pittman showed the full package as Ohio State's featured back the past few seasons, and in keeper leagues he has some long-term value since NFL insider's believe the Saints will jettison McAllister after this year due to an escalating contract - if that occurs, Pittman will be a keeper league steal.  For non-keeper leaguers, drop Pittman off this list.
16. WR Dwayne Jarrett Carolina Panthers - PA Firefighters ($15) - Jarrett is being knocked by critics for his USC ties and lack of speed but he ran the same time as a young Jerry Rice in 1985, and he's far more dedicated to his profession than former USC receiver Mike Williams - plus look at his production & talent.  He will never be a burner but he's a Keyshawn Johnson clone and that's why fantasy leaguers will like him, possibly as early as 2007. 

Others:

• RB Tony Hunt Philadelphia Eagles ($15) - He's a true bruiser who had back to back 1000 yard seasons for Penn State.  He's a tremendous north south runner who appears to be a complete back but he lacks speed and quickness, which for most RB's is the kiss of death on the NFL level. 
• QB Kevin Kolb Philadelphia Eagles ($25) - a surprise pick in the 2nd round, Kolb is in a nice position to sit and learn behind McNabb, AJ Feeley and possibly K. Holcomb.  But its unlikely he'll ascend to the top spot for at least 2 seasons, and even then he likely will have to wait for a couple more years as McNabb is just 30 years old and still at the top of his game (when he's healthy). 
• WR Robert Meachem NO Saints ($20)
• WR Ted Ginn Jr. Miami Dolphins ($20)
• WR Craig Davis San Diego Chargers ($15)
• TE Greg Olsen Chicago Bears ($12)

   

Comments

[todd2006]

Wow, some great stuff here.

For clarification, I have the 14th rookie pick... and I believe that the RJFC pick is in IMT's hands... although I could be wrong.

My plan is to let Naughty Thoughts draft a QB, have that QB do nothing their first year, and then pick him up from Naughty Thoughts for next to nothing.

[todd2006]

I could see Kolb going pretty high as well, if the McNabb to Chicago in 2008 rumors are true.

Bush is one of those players that really won't be at 100% for 2 seasons. Even when he begins to play in late 2007, he's not going to be at 100%. It takes a long time to rehab back into playing shape. I have trouble spending $25-30 on a player that I'm not going to get on the field for 2-3 seasons.

[Beavercat]

I don't foresee the Eagles moving their franchise QB that soon, barring another season ending injury of course. Kolb will definitely into great insurance and possibly the starter in 3 or 4 years - but there is no guarantee and most importantly no clear line of sight to that happening.