Carolina's Keyshawn Johnson was a solid spot-starter last year, w/800 yards and 5 total TDs. He came pretty cheap at our draft and provided my team with much-needed WR depth. Look for Dwayne Jarrett to walk right in and fill Keyshawn's role, which is what the team had in mind when it drafted Jarrett with the 45th overall pick and let Me-Shawn go (apologies to our Palo Alto schoolmate, Kristin Coleman, who is marrying Keyshawn, is rumored to be a key catalyst behind his decision to retire, and I'm sure is better at keeping his ego in check than most NFL coaches).
Expect the Carolina offense to bounce back this year with over 20 TD passes and for Jarrett to take full advantage of single coverage with Steve Smith distracting the defense. What Jarrett lacks in speed and experience he will make up for in athleticism, size and strength, especially in the Red Zone. He may just be a more potent target in his rookie year than Keyshawn was in his final year.
If you want the best rookie WR for the long-term, Calvin Johnson is your man. But don't be surprised to see Jarrett put up the best rookie WR stats in 2007, with something in the neighborhood of 700 yards and 6-7 TDs. Avoid the kiss of death and don't overspend on any rookie WRs, but consider snagging Jarrett on the cheap, if you can.
First of all, neither Calvin J or Dwanye J will be cheap in our league. CJ should go for $40 easy. DJ will cost at least $25, maybe more. That said, I think you'll be underpaying for CJ and overpaying for DJ.
CJ has the chance to be what Charles Rogers should have been: a 12-15 TD-catching, 1400 yard WR. Martz loves to throw and CJ is going to get his touches.
Dwayne on the other hand has had less than an exciting Spring & Summer league experience. It started when Dwayne fell to the 45th pick, originally slated to go in the middle of the first round. His 40 yard dash time was below average and comparisons with former Trojan WR Mike Williams wasn't helping things. He was recently involved in a car accident, Colbert and Carter (also fighting for the 2nd WR position in Carolina) have both looked impressive lately. The Sporting News recently mentioned that Jarrett has the inside track to start, but he's got to prove it in training camp in order to do so. At the end of the day, Jarrett is a possession WR who might snag some extra TDs in the redzone offense.
I'd consider CJ, Bowe, and Meach before I'd consider Jarrett. But that's just me...
Posted by: todd2006 | July 13, 2007 at 03:00 PM
There's certainly something to this...if Jarret gets into camp on time and can beat out Colbert & D. Carter, he good very likely be a serviceable fantasy receiver this year. But he also could be another in a long line (which includes Keary Colbert) of USC receivers who didn't live up to the college hype.
Posted by: Beavercat | July 13, 2007 at 09:41 PM
i'd rather have colbert or carter at $5 than Jarrett at $20.
Really bad feeling about this rookie WR
Posted by: todd2006 | July 14, 2007 at 01:29 AM